The U.S. ag attache in Argentina has lowered its estimate of the country's corn and soybean crops, as well as its export estimates ahead of next week's USDA Supply & Demand Reports.
The attache estimates Argentine corn production to drop to 21.8 million metric tons (MMT), significantly lower than USDA’s number at 26.0 MMT. "A severe drought and high temperature during the flowering stage has irreversibly damaged early plantations. Almost all the corn area was affected, including core production areas in Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Cordoba. The final output will depend on the rainfall from now onwards, which will determine the production of late planted corn," it states.
Additionally, the attache says corn exports are projected down at 14.0 MMT, 4.5 MMT lower than USDA's current peg.
Soybean production for the 2011-12 marketing year is lowered from the official USDA number of 50.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 46.5 MMT. "The main production areas have severe water deficits and despite sporadic rain showers, damage has been done. Based on lower production, exports and crush numbers are also dropped," states the attache.
The attache states, "2011-12 bean exports are lowered to 6.5 MMT from the USDA official number of 9.3 MMT. Furthermore crush is expected to drop slightly from 39.65 to 38 MMT."
Juli says: Lower crop estimates from the attache provide a clue that USDA will make similar moves next week's USDA Supply & Demand Reports. While rains are too late to do more than stabilize the corn crop there, the weekend forecast has turned very wet in Argentina and southern Brazil, which will help the soybean crop.