The U.S. ag attache in Argentina has increased its estimate of Argentina's wheat exports for 2011-12, but has lowered the estimate of its corn crop and exports.
Regarding the corn crop, the attache has lowered its 2011-12 corn production estimate to 21.2 MMT, below USDA's current peg of 21.5 MMT. It sees exports at 13.3 MMT, which compares to USDA's current peg of 14.0 MMT and last season at 16.317 MMT. Its initial estimate for 2012-13 are for a recovery in production to 23.6 MMT and exports at 15.0 MMT.
"Although less than 50% of the harvest was done, producers are now harvesting soybeans and when finished will return to the harvest of corn, average yields are low due primarily to the severe drought and high temperatures during summer," says the attache. "Late-planted corn, roughly estimated at about 25% of the total, is in excellent conditions, with expected yields of 8-9 tons per hectare. Most local estimates for corn production range between 19-22 MMT. Lower production plus a smaller beginning stock are expected to reduce exports by 700,000 metric tons in 2011-12."
Meanwhile, the attache says 2011-12 wheat exports are projected at 10,000 metric tons (MT), higher than USDA's peg of 9,500 MT. The attache also lowered the wheat crop to 14.3 MMT, 200,000 MT below USDA. In 2012-13, the attache sees production slipping to 12.0 MMT, with exports also slipping to 6.2 MMT.