The U.S. ag attache in Russia says the country's wheat production will slip to 54 million metric tons (MMT), down 2 MMT from last year due to the result of spring dryness in key production areas. Total grain production is expected at 88 MMT. The attache says because of smaller supplies, 2012-13 Russian grain exports will fall to 19 MMT, including 16 MMT of wheat, from a record 27.1 MMT in the current marketing year.
Link to full attache report.
"While wheat exports in July 2011 were at a record level for that month of 2.6 MMT, July 2012 wheat exports will likely fall back to a more average level of only about 25% that amount," says the attache.
"Massive grain exports in 2011-12 resulted in depletion of Russia’s grain stocks, especially in the Southern and North Caucasus federal districts, the major grain exporting regions of Russia." reminds the attache. "By April 1, 2012 Russia’s grain stocks at farms and grain processing and trading enterprises and warehouses decreased to 25.8 MMT that was 0.44 MMT less than on April 1, 2011, when grain exports had been banned for already 7.5 months. Moreover, grain stocks in the major grain exporting federal districts shrunk in comparison with April 2011. In the Southern Federal District grain stocks were approximately 3.9 MMT (25% less than on April 1, 2011), and in the North Caucasus Federal District – less than 1.4 MMT (32% less than on April 1, 2011)."