August is known for really making the soybean crop. Now that August is more than a week in, rain showers have been in the forecast coupled with cooler temperatures.
If these ideal conditions continue, Bryan Doherty, senior market advisor for Stewart-Peterson, says it boils down to two things.
“We’ve been trading around $10 in November soybeans, so that’s your pivot point,” he said. “Good weather can push you under that, bad weather can rapidly move above that. We’re looking better weather the end of August”
The heat dome that hit the Midwest has since been pushed out, which is where Doherty said the concern was with this forecast.
“We go back to our earlier analysis in the year, you got a range of probably $9 to $10.50, maybe $11 on the top side,” he said. “You’re looking at $9 to $9.50 again on futures. Rain makes grain.”
Hear what Doherty says about downside risk in soybeans on AgDay above.