August Crop Reports out Monday

August 9, 2013 10:03 AM
 

USDA will release its first survey-based estimates for the corn, soybean and cotton crops via the Crop Production Report at 11 a.m. CT on Monday. USDA will also update Supply & Demand tables for 2012-13 and 2013-14.

Crop Production

Avg.

Range

USDA July

USDA 2012

in billion bushels

Corn

14.005

13.485-14.348

13.950

10.780

Soybeans

3.336

3.226-3.420

3.420

3.015

Cotton (mil. bales)

13.69

13.25-14.20

13.50

17.315

 

Traders expect USDA's first survey-based corn crop estimate to come in at 14.005 billion bu., which would be 55 million bu. higher than the model-driven projection in July. The corn yield estimate is guessed at 157.7 bu. per acre compared to the July projection of 156.5 bu. per acre. For soybeans, the average pre-report guess pegs the crop at 3.336 billion bu. and the yield at 43.6 bu. per acre. In July, USDA projected the bean crop at 3.420 billion bu. and the yield at 44.5 bu. per acre. Cotton production is guessed at 13.69 million bales compared to the July projection of 13.50 million bales.

Wheat Production

Avg.

Range

USDA July

USDA 2012

in billion bushels

All wheat

2.106

1.942-2.150

2.114

2.269

All winter

1.543

1.510-1.554

1.543

1.645

Other spring

0.506

0.435-0.538

0.513

0.542

Durum

0.061

0.055-0.080

0.058

0.082

 

The all wheat crop estimate is expected to decline 8 million bu. from last month to 2.106 billion bushels. The spring wheat crop estimate is guessed down 7 million bu. from last month's first survey-based estimate at 506 million bushels.

2012-13 carryover

Avg.

Range

USDA July

2011-12

in billion bushels

Corn

0.724

0.537-0.819

0.729

0.989

Soybeans

0.123

0.109-0.135

0.125

0.169

 

Traders are anticipating modest downward revisions to USDA's old-crop corn and soybean carryover estimates this month. The average trade guess pegs corn carryover at 724 million bu. and bean carryover at 123 million bushels.

2013-14 carryover

Avg.

Range

USDA July

in billion bushels

Corn

1.970

1.498-2.431

1.959

Soybeans

0.263

0.131-0.306

0.295

Wheat

0.572

0.477-0.653

0.576

Cotton (mil. bales)

3.05

2.80-3.60

2.9

 

Traders are looking for USDA's new-crop corn ending stocks projection to rise 11 million bu. from last month to 1.970 billion bushels. New-crop soybean carryover is seen falling 32 million bu. from last month to 263 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks are guessed 4 million bu. lower than month-ago at 572 million bushels. And 2013-14 cotton carryover is expected to rise 150,000 bales from July to 3.05 million bales.

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