The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says while neutral ENSO conditions continue, the development of La Nina this year can't be ruled. It states surface waters of the eastern Pacific have cooled recently, but sea surface reading remain in neutral territory for now.
"There is some divergence in the outlooks from the seven international models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology," it states. "Both the Bureau of Meteorology and UK models suggest there is an increased chance of weak La Nina conditions forming during the winter months. However the remainder of the models indicate neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue."
Regarding sea surface temperatures (SST), the Bureau states: "Compared to two weeks ago, negative SST anomalies have strengthened in the far eastern equatorial Pacific while remaining generally similar and warming slightly in the west. While notable at the surface, these cool anomalies are not supported by the sub-surface and are therefore expected to be transitory. For the week ending June 30, negative SST anomalies lie along much of the equator east of 130°W and extend southward along the South American coast. Weak warm SST anomalies are present around the Maritime Continent, northeast of Australia in the western Pacific, near the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and along Australia’s southern coastline. Anomalies are near average across the central tropical Pacific."