The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the state of ENSO across the tropical Pacific remains neutral (neither El Nino nor La Nina). Climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest that, although the Pacific Ocean will continue to warm over the coming months, a neutral ENSO state will persist into the southern hemisphere winter (July-Sept.).
The bureau says historically, about 70% of the time neutral or El Nino conditions have developed in the year following a 2-year La Nina event. "The main signs of ENSO, including trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and ocean temperatures, have all returned to near-normal levels. The SOI is at its lowest level since early 2010, while the equatorial Pacific has warmed by about 0.2 to 0.4 °C during the past fortnight," states the bureau.
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