Aussie Scientists: ENSO Remains 'Neutral'

January 29, 2013 12:11 AM

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says ENSO indicators in the tropical Pacific remain at neutral levels and model predictions indicate this neutral pattern is likely to continue into the southern hemisphere autumn (northern hemisphere spring).

"Atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels over recent months. While the last several weeks have seen a cooling of the waters in the tropical Pacific, climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this trend will reverse over the coming months, and hence an ENSO-neutral state is expected to persist well into the southern hemisphere autumn," it states. "Mid-summer (mid-winter in northern hemisphere) is typically too early for ENSO events to become established, rather autumn (spring in the northern hemisphere) is the time of year when events typically start or end. A clearer indication of Pacific Ocean conditions for 2013 will emerge over the next few months."

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