Aussie Scientists: Neutral ENSO Conditions to Linger

April 24, 2012 01:17 AM

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology says climate indicators across the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral and are expected to remain that way early into the Southern Hemisphere winter.

"All dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will continue to warm over the next six months. Four of the six models surveyed are suggesting warm (i.e., El Niño) conditions may develop during the coming (Southern Hemisphere) winter-spring," it says, noting historically, about 70% of two-year La Niña events are followed by neutral or El Niño phases.

All major indicators of ENSO, including cloudiness, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, lie well within the ENSO-neutral range. Over the past week, the SOI has returned to values not seen since April 2010, says the bureau.

Juli says: A move to El Nino conditions this growing season in the U.S. would increase the likelihood of above-trend corn and soybean yields, while neutral-ENSO conditions support thoughts of around trendline yields.

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