The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says ENSO-neutral conditions persist in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but some cooling has been seen over the past month. It says the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains neutral but moderately positive and trade winds are slightly stronger than normal. But despite this cooling, indicators remain "well short" of the strong La Nina conditions that were evident at this time last year.
"The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue into the southern spring, While no models suggest El Nino conditions are likely, two of the eight models predict further cooling over the coming season and into the southern summer," says the bureau.
Additionally, the bureau says the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is currently neutral. "Our climate model, POAMA, suggests there remains a chance of a positive IOD event forming over the coming month or so, but weakening thereafter. In the past, positive IOD events have been associated with drier conditions over parts of Australia, particularly in the southeast, during winter and spring."
Juli says: La Nina is once again on many meteorologists "watch list."