The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the chances of El Nino developing in 2012 have been reduced over the past two weeks, as ocean temperatures cooled. Ocean temperatures remain within the "neutral" range.
"Given the rate of ocean cooling, and the continued neutral conditions in the atmosphere, the chance of El Nino developing in 2012 has reduced further over the past fortnight," says the bureau. "However, some risk still remains while the trade winds in the western Pacific continue to be weaker than normal. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remaining at neutral levels, though still warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012."
But the bureau says the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a positive event, which is linked with decreased winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.