The Australia Bureau of Meteorology says atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and ocean temperatures have generally remained in the neutral range since mid to late 2012. Climate models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through May.
"While it is known that predictions from dynamical models during the April through June period have lower skill, all models currently forecast an ENSO-neutral state to continue for the next season," states the bureau. "Ocean temperatures around most of Australia are warmer than average. This may promote increased regional rainfall in favorable weather patterns."