The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says most climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain at values near the threshold of an El Niño event. Climate models suggest weak El Niño conditions are likely to be reached by the end of the year. No climate models suggest a return to La Niña conditions.
"Although indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade winds are less El Niño-like than they were a month ago, ocean surface temperatures continue to show a pattern, and in some places values, typical of the development stage of an El Niño," it says.
During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions, says the bureau.