Bargain Buying Surfaces in Corn, But Macro Situation Still Unstable

November 2, 2011 01:12 AM

What Traders are Talking About:

* Bargain hunting surfaces in corn. Corn futures rallied into the close Tuesday to finish higher amid late bargain hunting. The late buying on the board sparked speculation of end-user purchases in the cash market, although nothing has been confirmed.

The long and short of it: The bargain hunting and expectations of end-user buying signals there's still "value" under the market and attitudes are generally bullish. But corn needs to find demand above the market to rally sharply.

* Situation remains uncertain in Greece, euro-zone. Plans are still in place for Greece to hold a public vote on whether to accept the second bailout package. But first, Prime Minister George Papandreou must win a confidence vote in parliament Friday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have summoned Papandreou to crisis talks in Cannes, France, today before the G20 summit Thursday and Friday. The situation in Greece and the euro-zone remains very unstable -- and fluid.

The long and short of it: Papandreou's unexpected call for the referendum is creating more uncertainty after investors thought the situation had stabilized last week.

* Fed meeting concludes this afternoon. Traders are widely expecting the Fed to stand pat on monetary policy at the end of it's two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting today. If there is any additional stimulus announced, it's likely to be in the form of purchases of mortgage-backed securities. But prospects of that happening now are seen as slim. Also, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold his quarterly press conference this afternoon, which should give us a clearer vision of the Fed's thought process.

The long and short of it: While no change in monetary policy is expected, investors do want to see/hear that the Fed will be proactive and not reactive.

* FC Stone trims crop estimates. FC Stone lowered its corn crop estimate to 12.457 billion bu. (148.4 bu. per acre yield) and its soybean crop peg to 3.109 billion bu. (42.2 bu yield). In October, the firm estimated the corn crop at 12.553 billion bu. (148.7 bu. yield) and the soybean crop at 3.157 billion bu. (42.8 bu. yield). USDA's October crop estimates were 12.433 billion bu. (148.1 bu. yield) for corn and 3.060 billion bu. (41.5 bu. yield) for soybeans. Informa Economics is expected to release its November crop estimates this morning.

The long and short of it: Traders are expecting USDA to just fine tune its crop estimates this month.


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