Bob Utterback: The Party's Over; Get Ready for the Hangover

July 23, 2013 01:41 AM
Bob Utterback: The Party's Over; Get Ready for the Hangover

Agriculture has experienced record profits in recents years, but that's all about to change, says Farm Journal Economist Bob Utterback.

Are the good times about to give way? Most likely, according to Farm Journal Economist Bob Utterback.

Markets are cyclical, and at 2013 Corn College, Utterback warned that the bull-market years that agriculture has been experiencing may soon give way to a bear market—if it hasn't already.

"We've had some fantastic profits in agriculture by record levels," Utterback said. "I make the analogy of, we just had a great party, we got up on the table and danced, we had a great time. But so did everyone else in the world. And now we're moving into the hangover year, and unfortunately the bills are coming due for all the fun, and nobody wants to pay the bill. And that's the problem is, how long is that bill going to be due?"

In order to manage their risk, Utterback said farmers should be looking ahead to the 2014-2015 marketing year and planning accordingly.

Listen to Utterback's marketing insight:



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AgriGold, BASF, Chevrolet, ESN/Agrium, Great Plains, Honeywell, Koch, Novozymes, Precision Planting, SFP, Top Third Marketing

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Spell Check

7/23/2013 04:41 AM

  Bob - I couldn't agree more with your analysis. A bull market will also bring the last margin acre in to production and if you drive the through the corn belt and on the edges, you will see marginal ground, that has been planted and in good shape. The farmer is long the market and is rdiding another short crop expectation. The old saying "short crop long tail" is setting up for the perfect storm. 2013-2016 new crop are all riding the sub $5.00 bubble. I hope the wise saved some of these earnings and didn't use all that cash to buy $13,000 ground, because it's really no different than the 70"s...history does report itself. The difference this time might be the "too good to be true" crop insurance program!!!

Doug Carlson
Chappell, NE
9/28/2017 10:25 PM

  Yeah, 6 halfway decent years in the 2000's. Now back to another 70 years of 18th century grain prices


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