Brazil and Argentina production estimates are going up, but this week hailstorms ruined soybean and corn crops in Argentina’s Santa Fe Province. However, La Nina is forecast to be relatively mild this year, according to NOAA forecasters.
Meantime, Brazil’s crop agency CONAB has raised its soybean production estimate this week to 103.5 MMT, an increase of 1.9 MMT, and also increased soybean exports by 5 MMT compared with last year to 57 MMT. USDA’s November estimate of 102 MMT for Brazil’s soybean production remained unchanged.
CONAB also says first-season corn production is projected to be 10% greater (at more than 28 MMT) than last year, when weather-related problems devastated the country’s crops. USDA estimates that Brazil’s total corn production is 83.5 MMT, unchanged from October.
Brazilian crop analysts Safras & Mercado puts Brazil soybean plantings at 52.5% complete, which is 10% ahead of last year. The largest production state, Mato Grosso, is 82% planted, according to Allendale. For Argentina, USDA November estimates were unchanged, with soybean production of 57 MMT and corn production of 36.5 MMT
But an analysis by the University of Illinois concludes that if yields follow trend lines, Argentina corn production could see a 38% increase in 2017 production, to 1.525 billion bushels. And yield trends in Brazil also point to a 30% larger crop of 3.438 billion bushels.
If these assumptions are accurate, it “could have a significant impact on world production and ending stocks,” U of I concluded.