Bullish Reaction to Corn Stocks Data

September 28, 2012 02:43 AM

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Overnight highlights. Following are highlights of overnight trade and opening calls as of 7:45 a.m. CT:

Corn: 11 to 20 cents higher. Futures quickly surged in reaction to this morning's bullish Grain Stocks Report, which sets 2011-12 carryover at 988 million bushels -- further tightening carryin for the 2012-13 marketing year. This came in below traders' expectations of 1.126 billion bushels. Futures were trading softer ahead of the report and are now working on a bullish reversal, but still have a lot of work ahead in order to secure a near-term low.

Soybeans: 2 to 6 cents lower. Futures are reacting negatively to this morning's Grain Stocks Report, which sets 2011-12 carryover at 169 million bushels. Traders expected the report to show carryover at 132 million bushels. This raises carryin for 2012-13, but still reflects a tight supply situation.

Wheat: 12 to 15 cents higher. Futures are seeing a lift on spillover from corn futures, as well as a slightly positive grain stocks figure of 2.104 billion bu., which came in below the average trade guess of 2.281 billion bushels. Meanwhile, the all wheat crop of 2.269 billion bu. came in line with traders' expectations and 1 billion bu. above USDA's August projection.

Live cattle: Mixed. Futures are expected to see a choppy day as traders even positions ahead of the weekend. Pressure should be limited by ideas this week's losses are overdone and an upside bias should be seen as the beef market is showing signs it has posted a near-term low. Choice beef values rose 85 cents yesterday and Select was up 37 cents on solid movement of 121 loads. This week's cash cattle trade has been light so far at $123 -- down $3 from last week. Remaining feedlots are hoping packers will raise bids today.

Lean Hogs: Steady to higher. Futures are expected to see a lift from strength in the pork cutout market, as values rose $1.15 yesterday on solid movement of 73 loads. This is expected to inspire steady to firmer cash hog bids, as packers are still working to secure a large Saturday kill and supplies for early next week. But much of the focus today will be on position squaring ahead of this afternoon's Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report, expected to show On Feed at 100.7%, Kept for Breeding at 99.9% and Kept for Marketing at 100.8% of year-ago levels.



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