Rabobank has taken a close look at 2017 and is optimistic that fundamentals of supply and demand could translate into slight price increases for several commodities. Even so, it is not predicting huge price rallies for 2017. Which crops are in the most bullish shape moving forward?
Rabobank, which just published its Agri Commodity Outlook for 2017, sees several important factors in play this coming year, according to Stefan Vogel, global strategist.
“The macro environment and currency volatility will remain key price drivers in 2017,” he says. “And so will Chinese sales of commodities out of the country’s national reserve, which will heavily impact the trade flows of the largest global commodity importer.”
For example, China holds an estimated 60% of the world’s cotton supplies, over half of corn, 40% of wheat and 21% of soybeans. If China sells a significant amount of any of these commodities, it could easily depress global prices.
Here are Rabobank’s 12-month outlooks for prices (as compared to the forward curve), ranked from most bullish to most bearish:
- Lean hogs
- Live cattle
- Soy oil
- Palm oil
For additional highlights of Rabobank’s report, watch the video below.