Canadian Crop Stocks Also Tighten in June Report

June 30, 2015 03:30 PM
Canadian Crop Stocks Also Tighten in June Report

Canadian farmers who planted canola, durum wheat, barley for malting, and lentils are likely celebrating following the June 2015 Principal Field Crop Areas report from Statistics Canada, released June 30.

John Duvenaud of Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory in Winnipeg said canola prices could spike to $12 or $12.50/bu. this winter, up from the current $11.25/bu. Duvenaud was the commentator on a MGEX post-report press call.

“There were 1.3 million to 1.5 million acres reseeded in Canada due mostly to frost damage, and some of those acres were not reseeded to canola,” Duvenaud said.  “Alberta and west Saskatchewan were dry as a bone with no moisture at seeding depth. A lot of the original canola acres would have gone to barley and wheat.”

Canadian farmers reported seeding 19.8 million acres of canola, a drop of 2.4 percent from 2014.

“We will be tight on canola this year,” noted Duvenaud. “The canola market has already divorced itself from the soybean market to the extent that it can.”

Durum Wheat Acreage Grows

Canadian farmers reported increasing their 2015 plantings of wheat by 1.3 percent to 24.1 million acres. The year-over-year gain was driven by a 21.1 percent spike in durum wheat to 5.8 million acres. Meanwhile, spring wheat fell by 1.5% to 17.1 million acres.

“Durum was pretty hot last year,” said Duvenaud. “The world will be happy that Canadian farmers planted this much durum.” With problems in Europe and Tunisia, durum wheat should move well, he added.

No Extra Lentils, Peas

Growers of lentils and peas should also be smiling in the wake of the report.

“We had a terrible lentil crop last year with outrageously good prices,” said Duvenaud. “The lentil crop was asking to get planted.”

Roughly 3.9 million acres of lentils were reportedly planted, up 800,000 acres from last year’s 3.1 million, with almost no carryover.

Canada has long been a large exporter of peas to India, and now it is shipping to China as well. In the last year, Chinese manufacturers have figured out how to use peas in sweet sticky buns, a popular Chinese food.

“If we are not sold out of peas now, we are darn close to it,” said Duvenaud.

Barley, Oats Steal Acres

Canadian farmers said they planted 6.5 million acres or 10.7 percent more barley than last year, while increasing total oat acreage 21.6% from 2014 to 3.4 million acres.

“During seeding, oats were relatively expensive compared to wheat,” he said. “And oats are a cheaper crop to grow.” The current price for malt barley of $5.50/bu. is also decent, he noted.

Mixed Planting for Corn, Soybeans

Reported planted soybean acres of 5.4 million acres are 2.5 percent lower than last year’s record high due to this year’s poor fundamentals. The decline was driven by decreases in Quebec and Ontario, which typically account for around 70 percent of total soybean acreage in Canada. Canadian farmers also reported planting 3.3 million acres of corn for grain, an increase of 5.7 percent from 2014.

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