Cattle Inventory Report Not Expected to Signal Herd Rebuilding

January 31, 2013 06:43 AM
 

 

USDA will release its Cattle Inventory Report on Friday, February 1, at 2:00 p.m. CT. Following are pre-report expectations (as percent of year-ago):

 

Semiannual Cattle Inventory Report Expectations

Avg. trade guess

Range

 

% of year-ago

All cattle & calves

98.2

97.2-99.0

Annual calf crop

97.9

97.4-98.8

Total Cows/heifers calved

98.7

97.2-100.5

beef cows/heifers calved

98.5

96.4-100.7

milk cows/heifers calved

99.3

98.3-100.0

Heifers 500 lbs. and over

98.0

96.5-99.0

Beef replacement heifers

99.6

92.1-103.0

Milk replacement heifers

99.2

97.8-100.3

Other heifers

96.5

93.9-98.1

Steers 500 pounds and over

97.8

97.4-98.4

Bulls 500 pounds and over

97.3

95.0-99.5

Calves under 500 pounds

97.5

97.3-97.7

 

Juli says: If the average pre-report trade guesses are on target, U.S. cattle inventories at 89.135 million head would be the smallest since 1952. Traders are watching and waiting on producers to begin holding back heifers, as it would reduce beef production and signal the start of herd rebuilding has begun. But due to ongoing drought conditions across the Plains, that has not yet begun.

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