Consultant Cuts Brazil Bean Crop Estimate by Another 1 MMT

March 18, 2014 10:27 AM
 

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lopped another 1 MMT off his 2013-14 soybean production estimate, bringing it to 86.0 MMT. He has a neutral bias going forward. Cordonnier says Conab's "surprising" large cut to its bean crop estimate (to 85.4 MMT) forced him to reevaluate his crop peg, though he feels the agency was overly pessimistic. "It is unclear how safrinha soybean production entered into Conab's latest soybean estimate and it is possible that Conab's estimate may increase once the safrinha soybeans are fully accounted for," Cordonnier explained.

He also noted, "lower-than-expected yields are being reported in many areas of Brazil" due to hot, dry conditions earlier in the season in some areas and wet weather during harvest in parts of Mato Grosso. Cordonnier noted his estimate could decline further if dry weather persists in northeast Brazil, especially in Bahia.

Cordonnier also referenced Conab in his decision to leave his 2013-14 Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 68.5 MMT. Conab lowered its full-season corn crop estimate but raised its safrinha crop peg. Cordonnier believes safrinha corn plantings will not be as large as Conab indicated. Plus, he notes that much of the safrinha corn crop was planted after the ideal planting window closed; therefore, the crop will need an extended rainy season to realize Conab's yield projections. He sees this as unlikely. Cordonnier has a neutral bias toward his corn crop estimate going forward.

Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean production estimate unchanged at 54.0 MMT this week as he says weather has improved this month and the bean crop responds well to favorable late-season conditions. Some areas of Argentina have seen excessive rain, but Cordonnier notes that the near-term forecast is dryer, which would minimize losses. He has a neutral bias toward the Argentine bean crop going forward. Soybean harvest is just getting started in the country; if the weather cooperates, harvest will pick up at month's end, according to Cordonnier.

Corn harvest efforts in Argentina have been slowed by wet conditions in central Argentina, according to Cordonnier. Harvest is estimated at 4% complete versus 12% last year at this time. Meanwhile, late-planted corn in Argentina is in good condition thanks to ideal weather in February and March.

Cordonnier left his Argentine corn crop peg at 23.0 MMT with a neutral bias. But he did note "improved weather in northern Argentina could eventually result in a slightly higher estimate, whereas continued wet weather in central Argentina might result in a slight trimming of the corn yield."

Dr. Cordonnier 2013-14 Soybean Estimates

Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2012-13

in million metric tons

Brazil
86.0
86.5
83.5
82.0
Argentina
54.0
56.0
52.0
49.5
Paraguay
8.0
8.5
7.5
9.3
Bolivia
2.5
2.7
2.2
2.6
Uruguay
3.2
3.5
2.8
3.0
Total
153.7
159.7
149.5
146.4

 

Dr. Cordonnier 2013-14
Corn Estimates

Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2012-13

in million metric tons

Brazil
68.5
72.0
66.0
81.0
Argentina
23.5
25.0
21.5
26.5
Paraguay
2.5
2.8
2.1
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.4
Total
95.1
101.1
90.5
111.6

 


 

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