Consultant Slashes Corn Yield Estimate

July 3, 2012 08:30 AM
 

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier slashed his corn yield forecast by 6 bu. to 150 bu. per acre as extreme heat (and dryness) is hitting at the most critical juncture -- pollination. He also lowered his harvested corn acreage forecast to 88.5 million. The result: a crop estimate of 13.27 billion bu. -- down from 13.96 billion bu. previously. Dr. Cordonnier now puts his minimum yield at 131 bu. and his maximum yield at 155 bu..

Dr. Cordonnier trimmed his U.S. soybean yield estimate by 1 bu. to 41 bu. per acre. He also trimmed 1.3 million acres from his harvested acreage forecast, which now stands at 74 million, as the number of double-crop soybean acres will be lowered and abandonment is likely to be greater than normal given hot and dry conditions. As a result, Dr. Cordonnier now estimates the soybean crop at 3.03 billion bushels. While he says there is "big downside risk" for the soybean crop, he feels it's too early to get overly aggressive with yield and crop reductions. Dr. Cordonnier now puts his minimum yield forecast at 35 bu. per acre and his maximum yield forecast at 42 bu. per acre.

When looking at the top 18 production states, Dr. Cordonnier now puts 48.8% of U.S. corn acreage in the below-trend category (35.4% last week), 25.2% in the trendline category (38.6% last week) and 16.8% in the above-trend category (unchanged).

For soybeans, he now puts 56.2% of U.S. soybean acreage in the below-trend category (47.7% last week), 17.7% in the trendline category (26.2% last week) and 20.5% in the above-trend category (unchanged).

U.S. 2012 crop estimates

Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2011

in billion bushels

Corn
13.27
13.71
11.59
12.358
Soybeans
3.03
3.10
2.59
3.056

 


 

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