Corn Crop Won’t Reach USDA Record Yield Prediction, Scouts Say
USDA predicts a record high 15.3-billion-bushel corn crop for 2020. Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts say that won’t be achieved, based on what they’ve seen and counted this week.
“There’s just too much variability out there; you need consistency to build a really big yield and break a national record,” contends Brian Grete, Pro Farmer Editor and the leader on the eastern leg of the tour.
“You expect to see eye-popping numbers with that kind of prediction (from USDA), and I’ve just not seen that on this year’s tour,” adds scout Zach Egesdal, who is also working the eastern tour.
On the western leg of the crop tour, scout Brad Nelson says South Dakota and Minnesota will do their part to contribute to record yields but not Nebraska and Iowa.
“It’s too dry in parts of Nebraska and Iowa now and test weights aren’t that good,” says Nelson.
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) had forecast soybean and corn production to be up from 2019 in their August 12 report.
“Soybean production is up 25% from last year, forecast at 4.42 billion bushels; corn growers are expected to increase their production 12% from 2019, forecast at a record high 15.3 billion bushels,” NASS reported. “Average corn yield is forecast at a record high 181.8 bushels per acre, up 14.4 bushels from last year (2019).”
The record average for a U.S. corn yield was reached in 2018 with a 176.4 bpa average.
“That’s starting to feel like a stretch for 2020,” says Chip Flory, AgriTalk Host.
Grete says corn won’t reach historic yields this season, because it hasn’t had adequate nutrients, moisture and heat units throughout the season. Plus, corn lacks the flexibility that soybeans have to take advantage of late-season, positive weather conditions.
“Corn can’t start and stop like soybeans can,” Grete says.
The damaging winds that ripped through parts of Iowa last week are another reason why scouts don’t expect to see a record corn crop for 2020.
“In western Iowa, we went from I-80 north, and we got in the beginnings of the wind-damaged corn, and it was numbing,” says Brad Nelson, Pro Farmer master scout and farmer from Albert Lea, Minn. “I was surprised by how much damage is there, but it’s dry there now.”
The national drought monitor shows dryness prevails in much of the western part of Iowa.
“It’s extremely dry in Carroll and Guthrie Counties,” Flory says.
Pro Farmer scouts say U.S. soybeans could still grab a yield record this season.
“They have time yet,” says Grete, speaking of the soybean crop in the East. “They need a really good soaker, though these small rains they’ve been getting are good.”
Nelson says the same is true on the western leg of the crop tour. Weather conditions will determine soybean yield outcome.
On Thursday evening, scouts will convene and reveal their final yield projections. Listen here for more details about what scouts are seeing today.
Farm Journal Live: Crop Tour Update from Iowa
Take a Virtual Look at What Scouts Are Seeing in Iowa, Illinois
