Corn Acreage Remains A Moving Target

June 5, 2013 01:15 AM
 

What Traders are Talking About:

Overnight highlights: As of 6:15 a.m. CT, corn and soybean futures are mixed amid bull spreading, while wheat futures are narrowly mixed. The choppy tone means how futures finish the overnight session and any news that develops from now until 8:30 a.m. CT will influence the open of the day session. Cattle futures are called steady to weaker, while hog futures are expected to open with a mixed tone.

 

* Decisions on corn acreage coming soon. Some producers have already called it quits on corn planting and will attempt to claim unplanted acres as prevent-plant, while decision time is quickly approaching for others. June 10 (give or take a couple days) generally seems to be the date many producers have decided on for a final corn planting date. After that, producers will either switch acres to soybeans (if possible) or file a prevent-plant claim. With rains in the forecast into Friday for areas of the Corn Belt, that doesn't leave much window of opportunity for soils to dry out. In addition to planting decisions, many producers also have corn to replant given washouts, ponding and flooding due to the recent, heavy rains.

The long and short of it: Corn acreage will be down from March intentions, but final planted acreage remains a moving target. Unfortunately, USDA won't be able to provide us with a final answer in the Acreage Report as planting decisions are still in flux as survey work for the report is being conducted.

* December corn futures retreat. While planting delays are lingering much longer than hoped and the cool, soggy conditions are not promoting rapid plant development on areas that are seeded, December corn futures are retreating. Some of that has to do with forecasts calling for warmer, drier weather next week, giving traders some hope for a final push on corn plantings. But much of the blame for the lower price action this week is technical-based. December corn futures were higher through the ovenight hours Sunday night/Monday morning, but were unable to push through the March high and reversed lower. Bears now have short-term technical momentum on their side.

The long and short of it: It's hard to sustain supply-scare rallies, especially when they are based on too much moisture. Traders need technical incentive to continue to buy.

* GMO uncertainty lingers. South Korea says it has detected no GMO content in samples of U.S. wheat, but tests will continue as a new testing method from the U.S. will arrive in the country later this week. Final test results from South Korea were expected today, so they will now be at least a little later than anticipated. Meanwhile, Japan is trying to calm concerns about potential supply shortfalls by saying the country will seek alternatives to U.S. a white wheat if USDA's investigation into the situation isn't resolved soon. How the GMO plants got into the Oregon field remains a mystery as a lawyer for the farmer who owns and farms the land says that ground was not a test plot for GMO wheat and he has "no idea" how the seed would have gotten there.

The long and short of it: The wheat market continues to absorb this news relatively well. But the longer the situation lingers without answers, the more risk there is of a negative impact.

 

Follow me on Twitter: @BGrete


Need a speaker for a seminar or special event? Contact me: bgrete@profarmer.com

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