What Traders are Talking About:
* Grain starting to move. The combination of strength in futures and basis is starting to trigger movement of corn and soybeans across the Corn Belt. Cash sources reported lines waiting to dump in some areas yesterday. While many farmers are still looking for a higher price before unlocking the bin door, the recent sharp uptick in cash corn and soybean prices is not going unnoticed.
The long and short of it: Keep an eye on basis in your area. When basis softens, it will indicate "enough" supplies have been freed up in your local area.
* Increasing hotter and dry into next week in Argentina, southern Brazil. This morning's forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil is little changed from recent days. Argentina is expected to be dry and see increasingly hotter temps through Monday. After that, a storm system is expected to move into the country, with the possibility that an upper level ridge over southern Brazil could block the system and cause it to stall over central Argentina. That would increase rain chances for Argentina next week. In southern Brazil, the states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are forecast to be dry through at least the middle of next week -- and possibly longer. Temps are also expected to run above normal after today. Meanwhile, in central and northern production areas of Brazil, scattered rains are likely to continue through the weekend.
The long and short of it: South American weather remains a mixed bag. Traders will likely focus on next week's rain chances for central Argentina ahead of the weekend.
* Upbeat attitude in Europe. EU finance ministers are confident a deal will be reached between Greece and its private debt holders to keep the country from defaulting in the coming days. Several of the finance ministers also said they are upbeat the pieces are gradually falling into place for solving the euro-zone debt crisis. But IMF President Christine Lagarde warned "big worries" remain about what the euro zone will do going forward, and the U.S. and Japan also need to show a commitment to reducing debt.
The long and short of it: The attitude in Europe is upbeat for now. But the road to recovery remains long and bumpy.
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