Corn Prices Start Out Well, End Bad

March 25, 2011 12:11 PM

This information is provided by Scott Harms - Archer Financial Services, Inc. 800-933-3996.

A positive week in corn ended on a disappointing note on Friday.  The corn market was trading quietly higher to start the week, before the trade got wind of the possibility of strong export business on Thursday. 
The jump in mid-day gulf basis triggered a solid move higher and the rumored business was confirmed on Friday morning as it was announced that 1.25 MMT of corn was sold to an unknown destination.  Most in the trade agree that the destination is China, while a few are arguing that it may be Japan. 
Relatively speaking it was a quiet week in the soybean market with rather narrow ranged trade.  The commercials were solid sellers of soybeans this week while they aggressively bought corn to cover the export commitments. 
Next week contains one of the biggest reports of the year as the USDA will release their Prospective Planting and March 1st Stocks Reports on Thursday. 
I don’t see any surprises in the acreage report.  Perhaps the trade is using too high of a soybeans acreage estimate. The other concern is that corn rationing may or better corn efficiency may lead to larger corn stocks. 
I may look to have a defensive hedge in place for old crop corn and look to reward a bullish reaction in new crop soybeans.


3 25 11 Weekly Prices

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Market Change Chart 3 25 11


3 25 11 COT

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