The U.S. 2011/12 cotton supply and demand estimates include higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. USDA’s first survey-based crop estimates show harvested acres of 9.7 million, indicating that 30 percent of planted area has been abandoned due to severe drought. Production is estimated at 16.6 million bales, an increase of 550,000 bales from last month and 9 percent below 2010/11.
Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month at 3.8 million bales, but exports are raised to 12.3 million due to the larger supply. Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.3 million bales, 16 percent above the beginning level, but still a relatively tight 20 percent of total use. The
forecast marketing year average price received by producers of $.85-$1.05 is lowered 5 cents on both ends of the range, reflecting the recent drop in market prices.
Lower estimates of world consumption for both 2010/11 and 2011/12 are boosting this month’s 2011/12 cotton world stocks forecast by about 1.7 million bales, despite lower production. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are raised about 600,000 bales, due primarily to sluggish end-of-season consumption for 2010/11. World production for 2011/12 is reduced 450,000 bales, as lower production for Brazil, Uzbekistan, Burkina Faso, and Benin is partially offset by higher production for the United States and Mali.
A reduction of 1.6 million bales in projected 2011/12 world consumption mirrors the adjustments
made for the preceding season and lowers the world consumption growth rate to about 1 percent,
reflecting continued weakness in fiber demand and increased substitution of polyester for cotton.
World trade also is projected lower. World ending stocks are forecast at 52.7 million bales or 46 percent of world consumption, above the last two seasons but below the historical average.
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