Could a Frost or Freeze This Week Still Impact the Markets?

12:10PM Oct 07, 2019
Natural disasters
The forecast is changing, and frost could still have an impact on prices but, according to some analysts, not as large of an impact as farmers would have seen if this sort of forecast were in September.
( Farm Journal )

Meteorologists are calling for a cold week across the Upper Midwest. But it’s not just the cold that has farmers concerned—it’s the snow in the forecast.

Hype over a possible early frost or freeze has been discussed since summer, but a mild fall prevented that from coming to fruition in some areas. As the forecast is changing, frost could still have an impact on prices but, according to some analysts, not as large of an impact as farmers would have seen if this sort of forecast were in September.

“As you move further ahead, it becomes less important,” said Brian Basting of Advance Trading. “However, we recognize you have viewers across the country who planted very late and for those viewers it still does matter, and I would say at least for a couple weeks it could be a market mover.”

As of September 30, USDA said 88% of the nation’s corn crop was in dent stage, 10 percentage points behind average. Only 43% of the corn crop was considered “mature” by USDA, which trails the average by 30 percentage points.

“You need to get dent, most of the crop has made it to dent stage, there’s still some of the crop that hasn’t,” said Alan Brugler of Brugler Marketing. “We still only have half the crop in black layer, which is mature. “

Some private yield forecasts were banking on an early frost or freeze, and Brugler thinks USDA’s national average yield still has room to come down.

Watch the full discussion from U.S. Farm Report.