Coverage of March 31 Reports

March 31, 2011 03:20 AM

Two of the year’s biggest reports are slated for March 31, the annual Prospective Plantings report and the quarterly Grains Stocks report. USDA will release both reports at 7:30 a.m., CDT.

You’ll find all of the report data, expert analysis and news right here.

News and Analysis

Corn growers appear to be responding with more intended corn acres. If it will satisfy a hungry demand question is another question.
U.S. farmers plan to plant more corn and wheat than traders expected, but markets will quickly turn their attention to weather conditions. 
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report shows that end users of corn have yet to cry “uncle.”
Bob Utterback of Utterback Marketing, says old crop corn is up limit - the leader - looks as $8 corn is realistic. Soybeans close to $14.50. Wheat being pulled by corn and bean action. Fantastic opportunity for growers!
Jerry Gulke of The Gulke Group offers commentary on the report. Jerry said the report was bullish for producers. On the other hand the report could be bearish for users.
Mike Howlett of Top Third Ag Marketing Reports numbers from the REPORT. Acres about as expected. Real story -- grain stocks -- massive lower in report. Basically we are running out of grain. Corn expected most volatile, next to cotton.
Based on this morning's USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports, traders are looking for corn and soybeans to open sharply higher to limit up.
Soybean Acreage Down 1%, All Wheat Acreage Up 8% All Cotton Acreage Up 15%
Acreage would produce 13.83 bil. bu. crop if trend line yields are realized.
Tight supply situation expected to continue into 2011 and 2012

Pre-Report Analysis

USDA’s Planting Intentions and Grain Stocks reports may bring more questions than answers.  
AgDay reports that planting intentions are a wildcard every year, and 2011 will be no exception.
Rising corn futures picked up momentum today after Informa Economics estimated that producers will plant fewer corn acres than USDA projected last month. 
Early estimates show cotton and corn will likely pull acres out of soybeans.
Bob Utterback of Utterback Marketing said corn was the market of concern for today. Outside markets are starting to firm up but corn may wait until after the March 31 acerage report.
Now the attention is turning to the March 31 acreage report. Gulke says many in the trade believe the numbers will come in around 92 million corn acres, but they also believe it could reach as high as 94 million with the June report.
Like last year, exports will have to increase rapidly in the last half of the year in order to reach the USDA projection for the year.
Nate Smith of Gulke Group says today’s trade was not a good one for agriculture. Corn, wheat and beans were lower early however beans gained back later in the day. March 31 report and future weather will determine tomorrows action.
Price elasticity, in the theory of economics, means that rising prices will reduce demand. Inelasticity is the opposite: price has little effect on demand. In past years of relatively tight stocks, USDA tended to rationalize that rising prices would bring reductions in line with demand.
USDA’s Prospective Plantings report due out March 31 will likely be the most closely watched report of the year.
Mike says market may be over the battle for acres but waiting for the March 31 report. Nine mile long lines waiting to deliver soybeans in Brazil will begin to affect the soybean market.



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