The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) the seasonal drought outlook for the remainder of the year is b ased on expectations La Niña will strengthen and continue throughout this period. As a result, the chances for persistence across the exceptional drought areas of the Southern Plains is heightened.
" It should be noted that forecast confidence across the western Gulf region and Southeast is tempered due to the potential for heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone activity during the fall. The waning of the summer monsoon and enhanced odds for below median precipitation during October – December favor persistence or development across most of the Southwest," adds CPC.
Link to additional details.