The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through the summer. It says most models forecast neutral conditions to continue through the fall, with dynamic models predicting warmer conditions, which would reflect a trend toward El Nino.
"There is less confidence in the forecasts for the last half of the year, partly because of the so-called "spring barrier," which historically leads to lower model skill beginning in late spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013," states CPC.
Earlier this week, we reported that meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com says recent weather trends suggest an emerging El Nino signal, which is more favorable for drought improvement across the western Corn Belt. Click here for this related article.