CPC: ENSO-Neutral Favored into at Least Spring

January 10, 2013 04:04 AM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says ENSO-neutral conditions continued during December as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies were positive in the western Pacific, near zero in the central Pacific and slightly negative in much of the eastern Pacific. It reports most models suggest neutral conditions will continue into the summer.

"Model predictions favor near-average SST in the Niño-3.4 region from the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 into summer 2013," it states. "Because predictions through the April-June season are known to be less skillful, the forecasts for the summer carry limited confidence at this time. Thus, it is considered unlikely that an El Niño or La Niña will develop during the next several months, and ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013."

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