CPC: ENSO-Neutral Favored into Fall

July 5, 2013 04:20 AM

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gives 60% or greater odds that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue into the fall. It says during June, below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) prevailed in the eastern Pacific, while near-average SSTs persisted across the rest of the equatorial Pacific.

"This ENSO-neutral pattern was also reflected in the Nino indices, which were warmer than -0.5C in Nino-4 and Nino-3.4 and cooler than -0.5C in Nino-3 and Nino-1+2 during the month," states CPC. "Meanwhile, the oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies increased during June due to the emergence of above-average subsurface temperatures in the eastern half of the Pacific. Across the equatorial Pacific, the low-level winds remained near average, while weak upper-level westerly anomalies persisted in the central Pacific.

Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions were consistent with ENSO-neutral, says CPC. "Most model forecasts continue to indicate ENSO-neutral condition into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2013-14. The statistical model forecasts remain cooler in the Nino-3.4 region relative to the dynamical models forecasts. The forecast consensus favors ENSO-neutral (near 60% or greater) into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2013," it adds.


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