The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says during November, the Pacific Ocean reflected ENSO-neutral conditions, which they expect to continue into spring 2013. It says while the tropical atmosphere suggested borderline ENSO-neutral to weak El Nino conditions at times from July to September, these signs have largely dissipated. Therefore, it says El Nino is unlikely to develop over the next several months.
"Relative to last month, the SST model predictions increasingly favor ENSO-neutral, with many remaining just slightly above average in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013," says CPC. "While the tropical atmosphere and especially the ocean suggested borderline ENSO-neutral/weak El Nino conditions at times from July to September, these signs have now largely dissipated. Therefore, it is considered unlikely that a fully coupled El Nino will develop during the next several months. ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013."