CPC: ENSO-Neutral To Continue Through Winter

September 5, 2013 04:51 AM


The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects ENSO-neutral conditions to continue through winter. It says near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued during August.

"The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained near to slightly above average during August, due to the persistence of above-average sub-surface temperatures across much of the eastern half of the Pacific," it adds. "The low-level and upper-level winds were near average across the equatorial Pacific. Convection continued to be enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed in the central and eastern Pacific. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral."

CPC says most of its models signal ENSO-neutral will continue into spring 2014. "For the next several seasons, the average of the statistical model forecasts is near -0.5oC, while the average of the dynamical model forecasts is near or just above 0.0oC. Similar to last month, the forecast consensus favors ENSO-neutral (60% chance or greater) through December – February 2013-14."


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