The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says La Nina is gone and ENSO-neutral conditions rae expected to continue through the summer, but at least half of the dynamic models predict the development of El Nino between June and August.
"The current and evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts, suggest that La Niña is unlikely to re-develop later this year. A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to continue from April-June (AMJ) through the June-August (JJA) season. However, at least half of the dynamical models predict development of El Niño conditions by JJA," states CPC. "Still, from JJA onward there is considerable forecast uncertainty as to whether ENSO-neutral or El Niño conditions will prevail, due largely to the inability to predict whether the warmer SST will result in the ocean-atmosphere coupling required for a sustained El Niño event."
Juli says: Timing of a potential El Nino event is important, as it is associated with above-trendline yields in the Midwest. The sooner El Nino is estsablished, the better the chance for favorable conditions across the Corn Belt.