Crop Analysis (VIP) -- June 13, 2013

June 13, 2013 09:38 AM
 

Corn

Price action: Corn futures were weaker throughout the day on bull spread unwinding, with new-crop futures ending well off session lows with losses of mostly around a penny. July corn closed 7 1/4 cents lower and September ended 4 1/2 cents lower.

Fundamental analysis: Corn was vulnerable to followthrough selling after yesterday's losses, as traders still have USDA's bearish S&D Report on their minds. USDA trimmed new-crop corn carryover less than expected. This has returned focus to new-crop growing conditions. While producers are concerned about saturated soil conditions and its impact on plant populations and general crop health, traders view moisture as largely beneficial.

Adding to today's weaker tone was a lackluster export sales report showing sales of just 81,500 MT for 2012-13 and sales of 68,000 MT for 2013-14. But firmer Gulf basis levels today signal demand has improved amid a tight supply situation.

Technical analysis: December corn futures violated support to post a weekly low of $5.29 but ended mid-range and back above the $5.30 level. Near-term boundaries are support at the May low of $5.12 and resistance at the June high of $5.73 1/2.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 10% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery

Cash-only marketers: 75% sold on 2012-crop production. 10% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

Soybeans

Price action: Soybean futures came under heavy pressure today. July futures ended 30 1/2 cents lower while the rest of the market posted losses of 12 to 18 1/2 cents. Futures settled near session lows.

Fundamental analysis: Soybeans extended yesterday's losses as the traders take yesterday's unchanged new-crop carryover estimate as a sign production will rebound in 2013. The market continues to see the Midwest rains as a positive in terms of yield potential rather than as a likely yield drag as growers looking at the calendar and the forecast for more rain do.

Old-crop futures were also under pressure due to this morning's weekly export sales report, which came within expectations but also showed the pace of 2012-13 exports slowing to steady with the previous marketing year.

Technical analysis: November soybeans again traded through the psychological $13.00 level today, but the market found selling in that area and closed just 1/2 cent above that psychological support level. Below that level, support stands at the June low of $12.85 1/4. The June high of $13.33 remains near-term resistance.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in November soybean futures at $12.19.

Cash-only marketers: 90% sold on 2012-crop. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery.

 

Wheat

Price action: Chicago and Kansas City wheat spent most of the day under light pressure, but short-covering picked up late and these markets ended roughly 1 to 3 cents higher. Minneapolis enjoyed slight gains most of the day and ended mostly around 5 cents higher.

Fundamental analysis: Minneapolis wheat futures benefited from concerns about ongoing spring wheat planting delays today, while other markets faced spillover pressure from the corn and especially the soybean market. But Chicago and Kansas City wheat did see some late short-covering on ideas the downside has been overdone, especially considering the poor state of the HRW wheat crop. But with harvest getting started, hedge-related pressure will continue to limit buying interest in these markets to short-covering.

Friendly outside markets also helped bulls to take the reins late in today's session.

Technical analysis: July Chicago wheat futures tested but respected support at the May low of $6.74 today, signaling it as tough near-term support. A move through that level would set the contract up for a test of the 2013 low of $6.64 3/4. The June high of $7.14 1/2 is resistance.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. No 2013-crop sales advised yet.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on 2012-crop. No 2013-crop sales advised yet.

 

Cotton

Price action: Cotton futures sharply extended gains into the close to finish 82 to 169 points higher in the 2013 contracts, with similar gains seen in most of the 2014 contracts. Far deferred futures ended 22 points lower.

Fundamental analysis: Futures enjoyed followthrough from yesterday's gains, as traders still have USDA's tighter-than-expected carryover projections on their minds. USDA lowered both its 2012-13 and 2013-14 U.S. carryover projections in yesterday's monthly balance sheet updates. While USDA revised its global 2012-13 cotton projection up slightly, it lowered its 2013-14 projection from last month.

This morning's weekly export sales data was also supportive for the market, as it showed sales of 101,100 running bales for 2012-13 and sales of 97,300 running bales for 2013-14.

Technical analysis: December cotton futures posted a strong upside day of trade on the daily chart, with bulls' next target being the March high of 89.20 cents. Support begins at the May high of 87.25 cents and extends to the June low of 81.72 cents.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on old-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 85% sold on old-crop. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

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