Crop Production: Ag Summary and Crop Comments

July 9, 2010 04:47 AM
 


June Agricultural Summary

Warmer than normal temperatures dominated much of the country during June, promoting rapid summer crop development in some areas, while negatively impacting crop conditions in others. Most notably, average monthly temperatures reached as much as 8 degrees above normal in portions of the Delta, Tennessee Valley, and along the central and southern Atlantic Coast. Elsewhere, cool temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rocky Mountains, and areas of the northern Great Plains hindered small grain maturation. While much of the southern United States was drier than normal during the month, the Pacific Northwest and Corn Belt received precipitation totaling 200 percent or more above normal. Rainfall totaling 12 inches or more fell in portions of Iowa and Nebraska, saturating fields and hampering fieldwork.

By June 13, ninety-eight percent of the 2010 corn crop was emerged, 4 percentage points ahead of last year and slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was complete or nearly complete throughout much of the major corn-producing regions. Silking was underway in half of the 18 estimating States by June 27, with progress most advanced in North Carolina, where warm temperatures had promoted rapid phenological development. Above average temperatures and adequate soil moisture levels in late June and early July pushed silking progress in Illinois and Indiana well ahead of the normal pace. By July 4, nineteen percent of the Nation's crop was at or beyond the silking stage, 11 percentage points ahead of last year and 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Corn condition ratings declined during June. Mid-month summer storms delivered above average rainfall and hail that caused flooding and damaged corn plants in some fields in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska, the five largest corn-producing States. In Iowa, the portion of the crop rated good to excellent continued to decline throughout the end of June and beginning of July, as excessive soil moisture led to increased yellowing and poor emergence in some fields. On July 4, seventy-one percent of the national crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 76 percent on June 6 and 71 percent from the same time last year.

As June began, optimal weather conditions in Kansas, the largest sorghum-producing State, afforded producers ample time to plant their crop at a rapid pace; however, overall progress remained slightly behind normal. In Texas, mid-month flooding in the Northern High Plains delayed sorghum planting by several days but overall progress for the State remained ahead of the average pace. Heading was underway in the Delta, Illinois, and Texas by June 20. Sorghum fields in southern Texas matured rapidly due to above average temperatures in late June. By July 4, producers had planted 98 percent of this year's crop, slightly ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. One quarter of the crop was headed, and coloring was well underway in Louisiana and Texas. On July 4, seventy-one percent of the sorghum crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 73 percent on June 13 and 51 percent from the same time last year.

By June 6, oat emergence reached 97 percent complete while 37 percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage, both ahead of the 5-year average. Warm temperatures throughout much of the major oat-producing regions promoted rapid head development early in the month. By June 20, heading was ahead of normal in all estimating States except Nebraska, where progress was slightly behind normal, and North Dakota, where heading had yet to begin and was over two weeks behind normal. By July 4, heading was complete or nearly complete in all of the major oat-producing States except the Dakotas. Eighty-one percent of the oat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 4, up slightly from ratings on June 6 and 22 percentage points better than the same time last year.

By June 13, ninety-six percent of this year's barley crop was emerged, 5 percentage points ahead of last year but slightly behind the 5-year average. The most significant delays were evident in Idaho and Montana, two of the three largest barley-producing States, where lingering below average temperatures limited crop growth in late May and early June. Nationally, 5 percent of the barley crop was at or beyond the heading stage by June 20, behind both last year and the 5-year average. Improved growing conditions throughout much of the major growing regions allowed for double-digit heading progress during the latter half of the month, and by July 4, forty-four percent of the barley crop was at the heading stage or beyond, 20 percentage points ahead of last year but 8 percentage points behind the 5-year average. On July 4, eighty-five percent of the barley crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 86 percent on June 6 and 77 percent from the same time last year.

As June began, heading of the winter wheat crop was 84 percent complete, on par with last year but slightly behind the 5-year average. The most significant delays were evident in the Pacific Northwest, Montana, and Nebraska, where cool temperatures had slowed crop development. By June 13, harvest was complete on 9 percent of this year's acreage, slightly ahead of last year but 3 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Warm, mostly dry weather prevailed mid-month, promoting rapid heading progress and providing ideal harvesting conditions for much of the major winter wheat-producing regions. By June 27, ninety-six percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage. Producers had harvested 54 percent of this year's crop by July 4, ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. As harvest surpassed the midpoint, 63 percent of the crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 66 percent on June 6 and 47 percent from the same time last year.

While spring wheat emergence was complete or nearly complete in three of the six major estimating States by June 6, progress trailed normal in Idaho, Montana, and North Dakota. By June 20, fourteen percent of the 2010 crop was at or beyond the heading stage, 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average, with the most significant delay evident in Washington, where overall progress was 11 days behind normal. Warmer temperatures toward month's end promoted rapid head development throughout the spring wheat-producing areas. By July 4, heading was 52 percent complete, 24 percentage points ahead of last year but 5 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Eighty-three percent of the spring wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 4, down slightly from ratings on June 6 but 11 percentage points better than the same time last year.

As June began, emergence of the 2010 rice crop was on par with or ahead of normal in four of the six major estimating States. In California, emergence was over one week behind normal on June 6, as earlier planted fields developed at a slower-than-normal pace following cool temperatures in late-May. Nationwide, emergence had advanced to 96 percent complete by June 20, slightly behind both last year and the 5-year average, but was complete throughout the Delta. By June 27, heading had begun in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, with progress most advanced in Louisiana, where producers were checking fields for insects and applying fungicides to treat sheath blight occurrences following recent rainfall. By July 4, thirteen percent of the rice crop was at or beyond the heading stage, 4 percentage points ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. Rice conditions declined during the latter half of June, as hot, dry weather prevailed throughout much of the Delta. Seventy-two percent of the crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 4, compared with 76 percent on June 6 and 55 percent from the same time last year.

By June 6, soybean producers had planted 84 percent of the Nation's crop, 8 percentage points ahead of last year but on par with the 5-year average. Mostly ideal growing conditions throughout much of the major soybean-producing regions promoted rapid emergence early in the month, and by June 13, emergence was complete on 80 percent of this year's acreage, 10 percentage points ahead of last year and slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Above average precipitation fell in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska, the five largest soybean-producing States, during the week ending June 20, limiting planting progress to 3 percentage points or less. With the exception of Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina, planting was complete or nearly complete in the major producing areas by June 27. Warm temperatures and adequate soil moisture levels promoted rapid crop development at month's end. By July 4, emergence had advanced to 97 percent complete and blooming was underway in the 18 major estimating States.
Sixty-six percent of the soybean crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 4, compared with 75 percent on June 6 and 66 percent from the same time last year.

Nationally, 96 percent of this year's peanut crop was planted by June 13, ahead of both last year and the 5-year average, with progress ahead of normal in all estimating States except Alabama, where planting trailed the average by nearly one week. By June 20, pegging was underway in all major peanut-producing States except Alabama, and had advanced to 39 percent complete by July 4, eleven percentage points ahead of last year and 7 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Above average temperatures coupled with mostly dry weather throughout the month led to a decline in crop condition ratings during June. On July 4, seventy-two percent of the 2010 peanut crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 77 percent on June 6 and 58 percent from the same time last year.

Sunflower producers in the four major estimating States had planted 52 percent of the Nation's crop by June 6, slightly ahead of last year but 7 percentage points behind the 5-year average. Planting progress remained steady during the two weeks from June 7 to June 20; however, wet fields in North Dakota, the largest sunflower-producing State, slowed progress from mid to late June. Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions returned during the week ending June 27, and by July 6, ninety-eight percent of this year's crop was planted, on par with both last year and the 5-year average.

By June 6, cotton producers across the country had planted 91 percent of the 2010 crop, 5 percentage points ahead of last year and 3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Planting was complete ahead of or on par with the average pace in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Louisiana, and Missouri where mostly sunny conditions during late May provided ample time for fieldwork. As the month progressed, warmer temperatures and timely rainfall promoted double-digit squaring progress throughout much of the major cotton-producing regions. With activity limited to Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the Delta, 4 percent of the Nation's crop was setting bolls by June 20, slightly behind both last year and the 5-year average. In Texas, adequate soil moisture and available heat units boosted crop development in the High Plains, while additional moisture was needed for continued growth in the Southern Low Plains. By July 4, sixty-four percent of this year's cotton crop was at or beyond the squaring stage, ahead of both last year and the 5-year average, while 15 percent of the crop was setting bolls, slightly ahead of last year but on par with the average. Sixty-five percent of the cotton crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 4, compared with 66 percent on June 6 and 42 percent from the same time last year.



Crop Comments

Oats: Production is forecast at 87.7 million bushels, down 6 percent from 2009. If realized, this will be the lowest production on record. Based on conditions as of July 1, the yield is forecast at 66.7 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from 2009's record high yield. Growers expect to harvest 1.32 million acres for grain or seed, down 5 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the smallest harvested area on record.

Compared with 2009, the largest yield decrease is expected in California, down 15 bushels from last year's record high. An increase of 4 bushels per acre is forecast in Michigan, with a 3 bushel increase expected in Illinois, Montana, and Texas. If realized, the yield forecasts in North Dakota and Wisconsin will both tie record highs previously set in 1993 for North Dakota and 2009 for Wisconsin.

Overall, the oat crop has developed at a near normal pace in most States this year. As of July 4, eighty-seven percent of the oat acreage was headed, 13 points ahead of last year's pace and 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. On July 4, eighty-one percent of the oat crop in the nine major producing States was rated as good to excellent, compared with 59 percent last year.

Barley: Production for 2010 is forecast at 182 million bushels, down 20 percent from 2009. Based on conditions as of July 1, the average yield for the United States is forecast at 71.6 bushels per acre, down 1.4 bushels from a year ago. While the forecasted yield per acre is down 2 percent from a year ago, the expected decline in production is more a reflection of the lowest planted acreage on record and the lowest expected harvested acreage since 1883. Area harvested for grain or seed, at 2.55 million acres, is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 18 percent from 2009. Record high yields are expected in Arizona and Colorado, while a record tying yield is forecast
for Idaho.

Emergence was complete on 96 percent of this year's barley crop by mid-June, slightly behind the 5-year average as cooler than normal temperatures slowed crop development in the Pacific Northwest and Montana. By July 4, heading in the five major barley-producing States had advanced to 44 percent complete, well ahead of last year but 8 percentage points behind normal. On July 4, eighty-five percent of this year's barley crop was reported in good to excellent condition, compared with 77 percent a year ago.

Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.51 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the June 1 forecast but down 1 percent from 2009. Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month and 2.7 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be tied for the third highest yield on record, trailing only 1999 and 2008. Expected grain area totals 32.1 million acres, down 7 percent from last year but unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2010. Harvest in the 18 major producing States was 54 percent complete by July 4, slightly ahead of last year and the 5-year average.

As of July 4, harvest progress was behind normal in all Hard Red Winter States except Kansas, where progress was 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest in Oklahoma and Texas was 90 and 78 percent complete, respectively. Yield forecasts were unchanged from last month in Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. Forecasted yield in Colorado and Kansas increased from last month. State yields in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas all rank in the top five on record.

As of July 4, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter growing area was ahead of normal in all major States except Michigan, where progress was 3 points behind the 5-year average. Yield forecasts are down from last month in most Soft Red Winter States. The largest declines were in North Carolina and Virginia, both down 9 bushels from last month. Extreme heat and dry weather produced adverse conditions in both States.

Due to beneficial rains across the region during June, yield forecasts in the Pacific Northwest States are above the previous month's levels. The wet conditions in Washington increased incidences of rust.

Durum wheat: Production is forecast at 104 million bushels, down 5 percent from 2009. The United States yield is forecast at 40.0 bushels per acre, 4.9 bushels below last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, trailing only last year. Area harvested for grain is expected to total 2.59 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2010 but up 7 percent from last year.

Yield forecasts are up from last year in all States except North Dakota. North Dakota's yield of 35 bushels per acre is down 4 bushels from last year, but if realized, will be tied for the third highest on record, trailing only 2009 and 1992. Record yields are expected in Arizona, California, and Idaho. As of July 4, crop condition in Montana and North Dakota, the two largest producing States, was rated 81 and 87 percent good to excellent, respectively. Condition ratings in both States are higher than the same time a year ago.

Other spring wheat: Production is forecast at 607 million bushels, up 4 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the third largest production on record. The United States yield is forecast at 44.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, trailing only last year. Area harvested for grain is expected to total 13.6 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2010 but up 5 percent from last year. 

In the six major producing States, 52 percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage as of July 4, twenty-four percentage points ahead of last year but 5 points behind the 5-year average. Heading in Minnesota and North Dakota was 63 and 34 percentage points ahead of last year, respectively. Forecasted yields are up from last year in all States except North Dakota. If realized, North Dakota's yield of 43 bushels per acre will be the second highest on record, trailing only last year. Minnesota's yield of 57 bushels per acre will also be the second highest on record, if realized.


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