Crop Recovery Continues

July 28, 2008 07:00 PM
 

Julianne Johnston Pro Farmer Senior Markets Editor


From Pro Farmer

Updated as of 7:00 a.m. CT

Crop conditions improve, again... When USDA's weekly crop ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500 point scale), the corn crop improved 3 points to 372 and the soybean crop rose nearly 9 points to 364. After a rough start, both crops are rated above year-ago despite late development.

Corn

7/27/08

7/20/08

7/22/07

Illinois

63.42

62.75

67.63

Indiana

29.70

28.44

26.18

Iowa

68.04

68.99

70.84

Kansas

13.47

13.36

13.60

Minnesota

37.48

36.89

31.75

Missouri

11.17

11.20

12.65

Nebraska

43.59

43.59

44.49

Ohio

15.74

15.78

13.26

South Dakota

15.48

14.94

15.13

Wisconsin

14.04

13.78

12.17

Total

371.64

369.20

362.08

 

Soybeans

7/27/08

7/20/08

6/22/07

Illinois

52.03

51.17

59.14

Indiana

31.32

30.29

28.86

Iowa

60.70

60.53

61.61

Minnesota

37.62

37.03

30.21

Missouri

19.78

20.15

22.38

Nebraska

29.16

29.08

28.18

Ohio

24.56

24.00

20.60

South Dakota

18.47

17.70

16.73

Total

363.51

354.79

352.96

 

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Opening calls. These calls originate more than three hours before the open -- use caution, things change:

Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower. Futures were slightly lower overnight on light profit-taking pressure and crop improvement. Futures closed slightly higher yesterday on short-covering. Traders are also keeping an eye on the weather, and extended forecasts remain hot. December corn spent yesterday pivoting around the $6.00 level. Support lies at last week's low of $5.63.

Soybeans: 20 to 23 cents lower. Futures were sharply lower overnight on crop improvement. Futures closed higher yesterday, but well off session highs. Futures are oversold according to the 9-day Relative Strength Index and due for a time or price correction. November beans gapped slightly higher on the open yesterday, filled the gap and closed mid-range. Futures need to fill the July 18-21 gap at $14.90 to signal a near-term low has been posted.

Wheat: 2 to 5 cents lower. Futures saw light spillover pressure from yesterday's losses. Futures opened higher yesterday but closed lower amid profit-taking. December Chicago wheat gapped slightly higher on the open but quickly filled the gap and ended 12 3/4 cents lower. Support lies at last week's low of $7.99. Futures continue within the boundaries of the downtrending channel.


Cash cattle expectations: Beef prices slide. Boxed beef prices were weaker Monday, although Choice values came well off their morning lows to finish just 3 cents lower for the day. The key this week is beef movement, which totaled 219 loads Monday. Beef movement must strengthen to signal prices have fallen far enough to trigger value buying among retailers.

Futures call: Weaker. Futures are called weaker on spillover from yesterday's losses, but choppy trade could be seen amid short-covering. Pressure came from last week's COF and Cattle Inventory Reports, as well as continued pressure on the beef market. October live cattle gapped lower on the open and filled the gap. Support lies at last week's low of $103.80.

Cash hog expectations: Mostly steady. Cash sources expect most Midwest locations to report steady cash hog bids today. Many packers are still trying to fill in holes in slaughter runs, but are expected to have the bulk of this week's needs covered by today. As a result, cash hog bids could soften as the week progresses.

Hog futures: Mixed. Futures are called mixed on continued spreading. Nearbys saw a choppy day yesterday, with downside risk limited by the discount the contract holds to the cash index. The CME lean hog index is projected up 63 cents to stand at $81.37. This should limit the potential for spillover pressure this morning for nearbys, as August futures are trading at around a $3 discount to the index.


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