Crops Analysis -- Advice (VIP) -- July 3, 2013

July 3, 2013 09:10 AM
 

Corn

Price action: Corn futures traded quietly in narrow ranges which saw prices lose ground through the morning and then firmed near the close in position squaring ahead of the July 4 holiday. The July contract closed up 5 1/2 cents and December finished 3/4 cent lower for a mid-range close. Other new-crop contracts finished mostly steady.

Fundamental analysis: Futures were supported in early trading from news China purchased three cargoes of new-crop U.S. corn at a price well below their domestic supplies. That was seen as a sign corn has reached value levels. Futures came under light pressure late morning on news Informa Economics reportedly expects USDA to forecast the nation's 2013 crop corn crop at 14.259 billion bu. in its July Supply & Demand Report. The firm also reportedly expects a national average yield of 160 bu. per acre. Traders view weather forecasts as favorable for crop development.

Technical analysis: Position evening ahead of the July 4 holiday was the main feature today. December futures continued to find support at the psychological $5.00 support area. That contract traded as low as $4.96 1/2 Tuesday but failed to trigger sell stops. The December contract probed into the downside gap left Monday and came within 1/4 cent of filling that gap. Momentum indicators are negative.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on old-crop. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

Soybeans

Price action: Old-crop beans led the soy complex higher today, while the rest of the market posted gains of 7 3/4 to 11 1/2 cents. The exception is the September contract, which ended 3 3/4 cents higher.

Fundamental analysis: Solid end-user demand has kept soybean basis levels strong. This helped the July contract to lead the market in a rally today as old-crop supplies are tight and a long growing season stretches ahead after a very slow start this year (As of Sunday, some acres were still unplanted).

The market also benefited from news China recently bought U.S. corn and wheat on the recent price break. This spurred optimism it has or is considering doing the same for beans.

But a non-threatening forecast for the Corn Belt remains a limiting factor for new-crop beans and resulted in a mid-range close for most contracts.

Technical analysis: November beans ended steady at $12.50 for the day -- an area that has in the past acted as both support and resistance. Followthrough buying when traders return July 5 would have bulls eyeing the March high of $12.80, followed by the $13.00 mark. Near-term support is at yesterday's dip to $12.35.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on old-crop. 20% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

Wheat

Advice: Hedgers are advised to sell 50% of 2013-crop in the cash market. Cash-only marketers are advised to sell 25% of new-crop production.

Price action: Wheat futures spent much of the day in positive territory. Chicago ended mostly 6 1/2 to 8 1/4 cents higher, while Kansas City posted gains of 4 1/2 to 10 cents in nearbys. Minneapolis softened into the close to end at or near session lows and mixed for the day.

Fundamental analysis: USDA's announcement of a 360,000 MT SRW wheat sale to China for 2013-14, which partially confirmed talk the country was in the market for 700,000 MT to 800,000 MT of "overseas wheat" lifted the wheat market ahead of the July Fourth holiday. Adding to the friendly tone were expectations harvest-related hedge pressure will ease as HRW wheat harvest has likely moved past 50% complete.

But the Minneapolis market came under pressure late today after news hit that Informa Economics reportedly expects USDA to raise its SRW wheat projection by 23 million bu. from its June 1 projection. (See "Evening Report" for more.)

Technical analysis: September Chicago wheat futures posted just a slight bounce from yesterday's new contract low of $6.52 1/4. The contract has a long ways to go to signal a low is in place. It must first move back above the $7.00 mark and then the June high of $7.24.

Hedgers: NEW ADVICE: Make an initial 50% 2013-crop sale in the cash market. 100% of 2012-crop wheat has been sold.

Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE: Make an initial 25% 2013-crop sale. 100% of 2012-crop wheat has been sold.

 

Cotton

Price action: Cotton futures moved higher today with the October contract finishing 92 points higher and the December closing 102 points higher. Other contracts closed 102 to 215 points higher.

Fundamental analysis: Position evening was the main feature today. But trader concerns over continuing drought conditions in the Southwest and Texas appear to be on the increase. There is also concern over tightening old-crop supplies, which is bringing support to the nearby contracts.

Technical analysis: October futures surged to their highest close since June 19. Moving average momentum indicators continue to be positive. The December contract has support from 81.72 cents down to 80.60 cents. December has resistance at 89.20 cents.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on old-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 85% sold on old-crop. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close