Crops Analysis -- Advice (VIP) -- June 6, 2013

June 6, 2013 10:13 AM
 

Corn

Price action: Corn futures traded lower initially in profit-taking and rebounded higher in a narrow trading range to close near the day's highs. July ended 2 1/2 cents higher and deferred contracts posted gains of mostly 5 1/4 to 7 cents.

Fundamental analysis: Old-crop futures felt some pressure from today's disappointing weekly export inspections report, which reminded traders price rationing is still underway. But the return of precipitation for western areas of the Corn Belt for early next week has traders again factoring in the impact of delayed planting on eventual planted acres and yields.

Technical analysis: December corn futures tested the May 28 gap area and found support at the top of the gap at $5.41 1/4 and bounced higher. Resistance rests at Monday's high of $5.73 3/4, which matches the March high.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 10% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery

Cash-only marketers: 75% sold on 2012-crop production. 10% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

Soybeans

Advice: Hedgers and cash-only marketers are advised to make a 10% forward contract sale for harvest delivery on expected 2013-crop production. This pushes new-crop cash forward contract sales to 20%.

Price action: Soybean futures saw bull spread unwinding for much of today's session and ended split with old-crop 4 3/4 to 5 cents lower, September 1 1/4 cents higher and deferred contracts roughly 5 to 6 cents higher.

Fundamental analysis: Soybean traders took advantage of a plummeting U.S. dollar index to cover some short positions in new-crop futures. The market also took advantage of the recent rally in old-crop contracts by booking profits. In addition, today's weekly export sales report reminded traders of slowing demand for U.S. soybeans. Traders continue to weigh the likelihood soybeans will pick up some corn acres against the yield implications of late planting.

New-crop futures also benefited from some technical fund buying today as the market found support at tests of both the 9- and 200-day moving average, which intersected.

Technical analysis: November soybean futures tested but closed above psychological support at $13.00 as well as support at the 9- and 200-day moving in the $12.92 to $12.96 area. The June high of $13.31 1/4 is near-term resistance.

Hedgers: NEW ADVICE: Make a 10% forward contract sale for harvest delivery on expected 2013-crop production to get to 20% forward priced on new-crop. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in November soybean futures at $12.19. 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE: Make a 10% forward contract sale for harvest delivery on expected 2013-crop production to get to 20% forward priced on new-crop. 90% sold on 2012-crop.

 

Wheat

Price action: Wheat futures saw two-sided trade today. Chicago ended 1 3/4 to 3 3/4 cents lower and Kansas City wheat posted losses of 3 1/4 to 5 1/4 cents, which was a mid- to low-range close for these markets. Minneapolis wheat ended mid- to high-range with fractional to 4 1/4-cent gains.

Fundamental analysis: Early in today's session wheat futures enjoyed spillover support from corn and from a stronger-than-expected net export sales tally. The market also saw some light short-covering as concerns about fallout among trading partners have eased for the time being on a lack of fresh news.

But countering this was some profit-taking as the latest Drought Monitor update reflected improvement in some areas of Kansas and Oklahoma (though other parts of the state remain in extreme drought). Meanwhile, planting delays continue to support Minneapolis wheat. Heavy pressure on the U.S. dollar index also translated to some risk reduction in wheat futures.

Technical analysis: September Chicago wheat futures continue to chop between the psychological $7.00 level and the June 1 high of $7.24, which mark support and resistance, respectively. A move through the bottom of that range would signal a test of the May low of $7.81 1/2 is likely.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. No 2013-crop sales advised yet.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on 2012-crop. No 2013-crop sales advised yet.

 

Cotton

Price action: Cotton futures closed slightly higher in most contracts, with the exception of the July contract, which finished 1.32 points higher.

Fundamental analysis: Old-crop futures got a lift from today's weekly export sales report, which showed net upland sales of 184,200 running bales for 2012-13, up 57% from the previous week and 80% from the prior five-week average. Sales of 138,400 RB for 2013-14 were also solid. Weakness in the U.S. dollar index also helped to give bulls an edge as this could make U.S. cotton prices more attractive to exporters.

Technical analysis: The December cotton contract broadened its trading range from Wednesday but still remained within Tuesday's broad range. It probed support under Wednesday's lows and quickly rebounded and closed near the day's high. Tuesday's high of 86.41 cents offers resistance while Monday's low of 81.72 cents is the next level of support if Tuesday's low of 83.08 cents is taken out.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on old-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 85% sold on old-crop. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close