Crops Analysis (VIP) -- August 20, 2013

August 20, 2013 10:31 AM
 

Corn

Price action: Corn futures faced pressure throughout the day and futures ended low-range with losses of 8 1/4 to 10 cents in all but far deferred contracts.

Fundamental analysis: Traders took advantage of yesterday's strong gains by booking some profits today. Also encouraging of this was the release of yield projections from the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour that pointed to a rebound major rebound in Ohio and South Dakota from year-ago and the three-year average if the crops can make it to maturity under ideal weather conditions (a big if, of course). Official results for Indiana and Nebraska will be released tonight. See "Evening Report" for preliminary route reports.

Selling interest was limited for much of the day by yesterday's USDA data that showed a larger-than-expected drop in the amount of corn rated "good" to "excellent" due to dryness. High temps in the Midwest this week with varied precip outlooks this week support ideas more declines may be ahead.

Technical analysis: Despite posting losses for the day, December corn remained in their recent uptrending posture. Uptrending support drawn off the lows since mid-month intersects around $4.70 tomorrow. Resistance is at the psychological $5.00 mark.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on old-crop. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

Soybeans

Price action: Soybean futures faced pressure throughout the day session and ended around 12 cents lower through the January contract and 5 1/2 to 14 3/4 cents lower in deferred months. Soymeal and soyoil futures also ended with slight to moderate losses.

Fundamental analysis: Traders took advantage of yesterday's strong rally by booking some profits today. Also, results from Day 1 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour and reports from the field today indicate the states scouts have toured thus far could produce solid crops if the weather cooperates. See "Evening Report" for more. Adding to the negative tone are above-normal precip chances in the 6- to 10-day outlook for much of the Corn Belt, including Iowa. However, the forecast for above-normal temps next week is not ideal.

Adding to the negative tone, basis levels have softened in some Midwest locations this week as recent gains have encouraged farmer sales.

Technical analysis: November soybeans hit a new monthly high of $13.09 3/4 during the overnight hours, but this gave way to profit-taking during the day session and futures settled back below the $13.00 mark, turning it into resistance. Support stands at the bottom of yesterday's slight upside gap at $12.72.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via a forward-price cash contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via a forward-price cash contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market.

 

Wheat

Price action: Wheat futures favored a weaker tone in choppy trade, but softened into the close, with SRW and HRW futures ending mostly 6 to 8 cents lower. HRS futures closed 5 to 6 cents lower in all but the lead-month contract, which ended 10 1/4 cents lower.

Fundamental analysis: Much of the pressure in the wheat pit came on spillover from corn and soybeans, especially as those markets softened into the close. At times, wheat futures pulled strength from sharp weakness on the U.S. dollar index, but traders are also aware that U.S. wheat prices remain above the global average and supplies are being recharged.

Otherwise, there was little fresh news for the wheat market to digest. There is some concern about the lagging spring wheat harvest pace, especially with rain in the near-term forecast. But overall, traders aren't overly concerned as this point.

Technical analysis: December SRW wheat futures posted a bearish reversal. Today's low-range close gives bears more momentum heading into overnight trade. Contract-low support lies at $6.35 1/2. The contract needs to clear the July high of $7.05 3/4 to begin signaling a near-term low has been posted.

Hedgers: 50% of 2013-crop is sold in the cash market. 100% sold on of 2012-crop.

Cash-only marketers: 25% of 2013-crop is sold. 100% sold on 2012-crop.

 

Cotton

Price action: Cotton futures plunged their 400-point limit lower and settled there for 2013 contracts today. March closed 372 points lower for the day and farther deferred months posted losses of 135 to 273 points.

Fundamental analysis: Funds have recently been pouring into the long side of the cotton market, reaching a record-large net long position the week ended Aug. 13. This kept the market pointed steadily higher the first half of August. That changed today when an uptick in USDA's U.S. cotton condition ratings yesterday encouraged a surge of selling that likely flushed out speculators on the way down. USDA yesterday pegged 46% of the crop as "good" to "excellent," a three-percentage-point increase from last week. The market was not concerned that the crop is still lagging in terms of development.

Technical analysis: December cotton futures plunged today and moved back into the long-standing trading range from the June high of 89.56 cents to the June low of 81.72 cents. These are resistance and support, respectively.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on 2012-crop.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close