Crops Analysis (VIP) -- August 21, 2013

August 21, 2013 10:10 AM
 

Corn

Price action: Corn futures enjoyed gains throughout the day and ended near session highs. The September contract closed 14 1/4 cents higher while deferred months finished around 6 to 7 cents higher. Funds bought 8,000 contracts (40 million bu.) today.

Fundamental analysis: Heat is expected to build across upper Midwest late this week and above-normal temps are expected in the 6- to 10-day window across the Corn Belt. This lifted futures as dryness is already a concern for much of this region, as noted by scouts on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. Official results for Illinois and western Iowa will be released tonight. See "Evening Report" for preliminary route reports.

A surge in Gulf basis this morning and at midday also indicates that fresh export demand news may be ahead. Tomorrow's export sales report will give the market a better idea as to whether active bargain buying is occurring.

Technical analysis: December corn futures saw a modest day of gains and the contract failed to move above yesterday's high. This means resistance remains at the psychological $5.00 mark, which roughly coincides with the 38% retracement of the June to August price break. The August low of $4.45 3/4 is tough support.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on old-crop. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

Soybeans

Price action: September soybean futures posted a high-range close with gains of 23 3/4 cents, with the November through March contracts up 10 1/2 to 13 1/2 cents, which was mid-range. Far-deferred futures ended 4 1/2 to 8 3/4 cents higher.

Fundamental analysis: Futures were supported by weather concerns, as warmer temps are raising moisture needs and there's little in the way of meaningful precip in the near-term forecast. Longer-range outlooks are more hopeful of Belt-wide rains, but forecasters aren't as confident about this outlook.

Traders kept a close eye on reports from the Midwest Crop Tour, which showed more yield variability in Illinois and western Iowa. Check "Evening Report" for preliminary route reports from Tour leaders.

Technical analysis: November soybeans futures closed above the $13.00 level, and while it was a mid-range close, it was still the highest close since June 19. Bulls' next target is the June high of $13.33, with support at the July 8 low of $12.25.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via a forward-price cash contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via a forward-price cash contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market.

 

Wheat

Price action: Wheat futures enjoyed light buying interest for most of the day in HRW and SRW contracts and ended with slight gains. HRS wheat, on the other hand, saw choppy trade and finished 1 to 6 cents lower.

Fundamental analysis: HRW and SRW wheat futures were again followers to the corn market amid a lack of fresh fundamental or demand news today. The market was again reminded of a rebound in world wheat production today as Stats Canada's first survey-based production estimate shows total wheat production in Canada is expected to rise 12.9% from last year to 30.56 MMT (see "Evening Report" for more).

HRS wheat saw choppy to lower trade as harvest-related hedge pressure is building.

Strength in the U.S. dollar index also limited buying interest across all three wheat flavors.

Technical analysis: December SRW wheat futures continued in the contracts recent uptrend since mid-month. Resistance remains at the $6.79 3/4 double-top August high. The August low of $6.35 1/2 is support.

Hedgers: 50% of 2013-crop is sold in the cash market. 100% sold on of 2012-crop.

Cash-only marketers: 25% of 2013-crop is sold. 100% sold on 2012-crop.

 

Cotton

Price action: Cotton futures faced heavy followthrough selling today and ended 485 and 442 points lower in the October and December contracts, respectively (the limit was expanded to 500 points today). Deferred months ended 86 to 294 points lower.

Fundamental analysis: Technical selling pressure weighed heavily on the cotton market as the contract broke through key support levels yesterday. The selloff started yesterday after an unexpected uptick in USDA's cotton condition rating for the U.S. crop Monday. News India's Cotton Association expects a 4.6% increase in the nation's cotton crop added pressure today. Also, China's government today confirmed earlier data that the nation's cotton imports slid 17% for the month of July from last year and that imports are down 21% on the year. Strength in the U.S. dollar index today added profit-taking incentive.

Technical analysis: December cotton futures yesterday moved back into its long-standing trading range between 80 and 90 cents. The contract appears headed for a test of the bottom of this range at the June low of 81.72 cents. If this level does not hold, the contract could be headed back to 2012 levels.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on 2012-crop.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close