Crops Analysis (VIP) -- July 15, 2013

July 15, 2013 09:28 AM
 

Corn

Price action: September corn futures closed 9 1/4 cents lower and low-range for the day, while new-crop contracts closed around 5 to 6 cents lower and mid-range.

Fundamental analysis: Weather weighed on the corn market today as forecasts for this week aren't as threatening as traders were anticipating when they went home last weekend. Also, forecasts for next week call for better rain chances and moderating temps for much of the Corn Belt. As a result, traders feel corn will have generally non-threatening conditions when more of the crop will be pollinating.

Fund selling also pressured corn futures today. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 contracts (25 million bu.) of corn for the day. While fund selling wasn't heavy today, it's hard for the market to generate enough buying interest to trade higher when funds are net sellers.

Technical analysis: December corn futures dipped below $5.00 today, but found no fresh selling at that level and close above this key level. Near-term support lies at last week's low of $4.90, while near-term resistance is at last week's high of $5.28 1/4.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on old-crop. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

 

Soybeans

Price action: Soybean futures saw a highly choppy day of trade, with losses in overnight trade followed by value buying in daytime trade and high-range closes. August beans closed 24 3/4 cents higher and September ended 16 1/4 cents higher. New-crop futures were mostly 6 to 9 cents higher.

Fundamental outlook: Early pressure was tied to overnight weather models signaling less threatening weather for the week across the Corn Belt. While temps are expected to be above normal this week, they aren't expected to be as hot as earlier indicated and extended weather models show potential for widespread rains by the weekend. But traders remain concerned about the delayed development of the crop and what impact that will have on yields.

Futures were further bolstered in mid-morning trade by indications of stronger-than-expected crush last month. NOPA reports June crush of 119 million bu., which is down from May, but still above expectations. Gulf soybean basis was firmer for August delivery this morning to reflect tight old-crop supplies.

Technical outlook: November soybean futures gapped lower on the open but found buyers around the $12.50 level and filled the gap. Near-term boundaries are support at the July low of $12.25 and resistance at last week's high of $12.97. A move above resistance would have bulls targeting the June high of $13.33.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on old-crop. 20% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

 

Wheat

Price action: Wheat futures faced pressure today and ended mostly 9 to 12 cents lower in Chicago and Minneapolis wheat. Kansas City wheat finished with losses of 6 to 7 cents.

Fundamental outlook: Wheat futures last week benefited from large Chinese purchases of U.S. SRW wheat, but traders returned from the weekend as sellers as fresh demand news was lacking today. Adding pressure is a more favorable forecast for spring wheat country as well as a relatively high crop condition rating for the crop, despite an unfavorable start to the growing season.

Today's weekly export inspections tally was again strong, signaling solid demand. But some expect importers to turn to other areas such as Europe or the Black Sea region for supplies as these regions are expected to harvest large crops this year.

Technical outlook: December Chicago wheat futures gapped lower on the open and settled low-range. Followthrough selling would have bears targeting the double-bottom contract low at $6.66 1/4. A rebound, on the other hand, would have bulls eyeing last week's high of $7.05 3/4.

Hedgers: 50% of 2013-crop is sold in the cash market. 100% sold on of 2012-crop.

Cash-only marketers: 25% of 2013-crop sale is sold. 100% sold on 2012-crop.

 

 

Cotton

Price action: Cotton futures saw a choppy day of trade and finished mixed with the October and December contracts 5 to 22 points higher, respectively, and the other contracts 11 to 45 points lower.

Fundamental outlook: Old-crop cotton futures benefited from light, corrective short-covering today, while the rest of the market faced pressure due to beneficial rains in Texas. USDA will provide an update on the state of the U.S. cotton crop this afternoon.

In addition, state-owned China National Reserves Corporation (CNRC) says it is working to reduce its cotton stockpiles by promoting domestic consumption. However, the market is well aware that China often talks its position. Plus, CNRC noted imports will continue at a rate similar to this season.

Technical outlook: December cotton futures saw an inside day of trade and ended high-range but quite a distance from near-term resistance at last week's high of 87.11 cents. Initial support stands at 84.18 cents, followed by the June 25 low of 83.05 cents.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on old-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 85% sold on old-crop. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

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