Crops Analysis (VIP) -- July 29, 2013

July 29, 2013 09:29 AM


Price action: Corn futures settled 2 1/4 to 2 3/4 cents lower through the July 2015 contract. Futures ended low-range but off session lows.

Fundamental analysis: Weather pressure on corn futures continued to start the new week. Forecasts call for below-normal temps and scattered rains this week. And the 6- to 10-day forecast calls for more non-threatening conditions. As a result, the corn crop will continue to pollinate under non-stressful conditions. When that's the case, it's hard to get traders concerned about the crop even when there are holes in key production areas of the western Corn Belt.

Funds continue to pump money into the short side of the market amid a lack of crop concerns, selling an estimated 5,000 contracts (25 million bu.) of corn today.

Technical analysis: December corn futures dropped below last Friday's low to extend the price decline. The contract is now into longer-term layered support from $4.74 to $4.60. Below the bottom end of that support range lies psychological support at $4.50. To the upside, the July 8 low at $4.90 is initial resistance, followed by the psychological $5.00 mark.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on old-crop. 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.




Price action: Soybean futures traded lower with the exception of the lead-month August contract but losses were trimmed near the end of the trading day. August futures closed near the day's high while new-crop contracts closed mid-range and generally 6 to 8 cents lower.

Fundamental analysis: Forecasts for cool temperatures with chances of precipitation over at least the next several weeks continues to remove trade worry over growing conditions. The view that current growing conditions are favorable for soybean growth vastly overshadow concerns the cool temperatures are delaying crop development even further.

News from private forecaster AgRural it expects Brazil's 2013-14 bean crop to rise 9% from year-ago to 89.1 MMT added light pressure to new-crop beans.

Funds reportedly sold 5,000 contracts (25 million bu.) of soybeans today. Funds continue to whittle away at their net long position amid the favorable weather.

Technical analysis: August soybean futures traded lower early and rebounded on short-covering on ideas recent losses have been overdone. Today's low at $13.28 3/4 is initial support, with a broader area of support existing from $13.23 3/4 to $12.82. Resistance starts at the psychological $14.00 mark.

The November contract posted an inside day with the bulk of the day spent trading just above Friday's low. Prices rallied into the close and finished mid-range. Support exists from $12.07 1/4 to the $11.86 1/2. Resistance begins at $12.25.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on old-crop. 20% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.




Price action: Wheat futures got off to a firmer start, but as the day progressed, this gave way to some light profit-taking. SRW wheat ended around a penny higher while HRS wheat ended mostly 1 to 2 cents lower. The HRW variety ended split with 2013 contracts slightly lower and deferred months slightly higher.

Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures were initially lifted by ideas the downside has been overdone, especially considering signs of increased end-user buying after the market's recent price break. Gulf basis firmed this morning and weekly export inspections for the week ended July 25 rose from the week prior and topped expectations. Reports Japan may lift its U.S. western wheat ban this week also gave bulls an early edge.

But ample global supplies means U.S. wheat faces a fair amount of demand competition; the Black Sea region has been the beneficiary of much of the uptick in global demand. This will continue to limit wheat's upside potential over the near-term.

Technical analysis: September Chicago wheat futures continue to consolidate around the $6.50 area, which marks near-term support. The contract must move above the July high of $6.93 to hint that a low is in the works.

Hedgers: 50% of 2013-crop is sold in the cash market. 100% sold on of 2012-crop.

Cash-only marketers: 25% of 2013-crop sale is sold. 100% sold on 2012-crop.




Price action: Cotton futures saw two-sided trade today, but futures ended low-range for the day with losses of 34 to 74 points.

Fundamental analysis: Strength in the U.S. dollar index and spillover pressure from corn and soybeans set the cotton market up for a downside day of trade. Traders were also hesitant to add risk ahead of USDA's weekly crop condition and progress update this afternoon.

But losses were kept in check by reports that production in southern areas of China's Xinjiang province, which accounts for more than half the nation's crop, may fall by up to 10% due to chilly temps, rain and hail. Lower acreage this year has already resulted in 2013 forecasts for around a 5% drop in production from year-ago to 6.5 MMT.

Technical analysis: December cotton futures tested, but respected, near-term support at last week's low of 84.60 cents. Below that level, support is layered from the July low of 83.20 cents to the June low of 81.72 cents. Last week's high of 86.55 cents is initial resistance.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on old-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 85% sold on old-crop. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.


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