Crops Analysis (VIP) -- June 10, 2013

June 10, 2013 09:46 AM
 

Corn

Price action: Corn futures were on the defensive throughout the day. All but the front-month contract came off session lows to finish mid-range. July corn posted a low-range close and ended 16 1/4 cents lower amid bull spread unwinding, while deferred contracts were mostly 9 1/2 to 14 1/4 cents lower. Funds sold a net 10,000 contracts (50 million bu.) of corn today.

Fundamental analysis: Pressure on corn futures came from expectations for improved weather this week to aid in crop development. Warmer temps are needed to spur growth of a crop that was planted late. Traders put little emphasis on the fact it's getting very late to seed remaining intended corn acres, but that could change after USDA provides an update this afternoon on planting progress, emergence and the condition of the crop.

Traders are also beginning to more actively even positions ahead of Wednesday's USDA Supply & Demand Report. Traders look for USDA to trim old- and new-crop carryover levels from last month, which could spur some pre-report short-covering tomorrow. See "Evening Report" for pre-report expectations.

Technical analysis: December corn futures finished mid-range, but still posted a slight downside day of trade on the daily chart. Near-term boundaries are support at last week's low of $5.39 1/2 and resistance at last week's high of $5.73 1/2.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 10% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery

Cash-only marketers: 75% sold on 2012-crop production. 10% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

 

Soybeans

Price action: Soybean futures closed 16 1/2 to 20 1/2 cents lower through the September contract, while new-crop futures were 6 /1 4 to 11 1/4 cents lower. Most contracts finished the day with mid-range closes.

Fundamental analysis: Traders reacted negatively to lighter-than-expected weekend rains and forecasts for warmer and less rainy conditions for the wettest areas of the Midwest. The selloff in corn futures and strength in the U.S. dollar index were also negatives today.

Funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts (25 million bu.) of soybeans today.

Technical analysis: The technical picture between old-crop July and new-crop November are somewhat divergent. The old-crop July contract broke its steep short-term uptrend but the longer-term uptrend line intersects around 80 cents lower. It did take out support at last week's low, making the $14.70 area the next level of support. Resistance stands at $15.49.

The November contract traded inside of Friday's range and closed mid-range. Resistance rest at last week's high of $13.33 with the next level of resistance at $13.50 3/4. Initial support rests near the $13.00 area with further support around $12.80.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in November soybean futures at $12.19.

Cash-only marketers: 90% sold on 2012-crop. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery.

 

 

Wheat

Price action: Wheat futures closed 4 to 6 cents lower in Chicago, 9 to 10 cents lower in Kansas City and mostly 6 to 8 cents lower in Minneapolis. Chicago and Kansas City futures closed mid-range, while Minneapolis futures ended near today's lows.

Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures faced constant spillover pressure from corn and beans today. A firmer dollar for much of the day added to the price pressure. However, forecasts call for hot temps across the Southern and Central Plains this week, which could stress late-developing wheat. Also, spring wheat planting delays in North Dakota helped limit selling in wheat futures.

While there are crop concerns, the threat of seasonal pressure is building as combines are rolling in southern areas of the Plains. It's hard for markets to find buying interest during harvest season -- even in short crop years.

Technical analysis: Near-term support for July Chicago wheat futures lies at the May low of $6.74 and then the April low at $6.64 3/4. To the upside, near-term resistance starts at last week's high of $7.14 1/2 and extends to the April high at $7.36 3/4.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. No 2013-crop sales advised yet.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on 2012-crop. No 2013-crop sales advised yet.

 

 

Cotton

Price action: Cotton futures settled 179 points higher in the July contract, while deferred months were 26 to 75 points higher.

Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures continue to rebound from the May low amid short-covering and supply concerns. Traders expect USDA to tighten its old-crop ending stocks forecast in the Supply & Demand Report Wednesday. Traders are anticipating USDA will raise its export forecast, thus tightening ending stocks. Plus, there are concerns with new-crop supplies as planting has been delayed in some areas and drought continues to plague key areas of Texas.

The supply concerns allowed traders to look past a stronger U.S. dollar for much of the day as traders are not convinced the dollar is done going down.

Technical analysis: December cotton futures continue to trade in the downtrend drawn off the March and May highs. A push above that trendline and a close above the May high at 87.25 cents would suggest bulls are ready to make another run at the March high.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on old-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 85% sold on old-crop. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

 

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