Crops Analysis (VIP) -- June 17, 2013

June 17, 2013 09:33 AM


Price action: Corn futures reversed course after overnight losses and ended higher amid bull spreading. July and September corn futures closed 13 1/2 and 7 cents higher, respectively. New-crop contracts were around a nickel higher.

Fundamental analysis: Strength in the cash market boosted old-crop corn futures today. Tight old-crop stocks and limited farmer selling continue to keep basis well above normal, which is supportive for July futures.

Fund buying was also a key component of today's price strength. Funds bought an estimated 10,000 contracts (50 million bu.) of corn today.

New-crop corn futures followed the July contract higher, though most of the strength was corrective in nature. Traders feel weather conditions are turning more favorable after a rough start, which will limit near-term buying interest unless those attitudes change.

Technical analysis: December corn futures posted a bullish reversal today. To signal a short-term low is in place, however, the contract must see followthrough buying. If a short-term low is in place, the upside target is the $5.70 to $5.73 3/4 area.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 10% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery

Cash-only marketers: 75% sold on 2012-crop production. 10% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.




Price action: Old-crop soybean futures finished mixed, with the July contract 4 cents lower and August up 1 1/4 cents. New-crop futures ended 6 3/4 to 12 3/4 cents lower and mid-range for the day.

Fundamental analysis: New-crop futures remained under pressure throughout the day as traders reacted to better-than-expected weekend weather and expectations many producers will use the next couple days of drier conditions to wrap up planting efforts. But due to tight old-crop supplies, pressure on nearby futures was limited, leading to bull spreading.

While this morning's weekly export inspections data reflected lackluster export demand, the monthly NOPA crush data showed crush in May above expectations at 122.6 million bushels. Additionally, soyoil stocks of 2.469 billion lbs. came in below expectations to reflect strong demand.

Technical analysis: November soybean futures gapped slightly lower on the open and filled the gap, but finished near opening levels to post a mid-range close. Today's low of $12.77 1/2 aligns closely with a 38% retracement of the rally from the April low to the June high. Closing below this support would make the halfway point of the trading range, around $12.60, bears' next target. Resistance is at the June high of $13.33.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in November soybean futures at $12.19.

Cash-only marketers: 90% sold on 2012-crop. 20% forward priced on expected 2013-crop production for harvest delivery.




Price action: Wheat futures were weaker in overnight trade but firmed with the start of daytime hours. Wheat softened around midday and ended narrowly mixed in Chicago and Kansas City, while Minneapolis wheat finished 1 to 3 cents lower.

Fundamental analysis: Kansas City wheat led the push to the upside on concerns rains across the Central and Southern Plains could cause some quality damage and slow harvest. July Kansas City wheat closed 5 1/2 cents higher, while front-month Chicago and Minneapolis futures ended 1/4 and 3 3/4 cents lower, respectively.

Wheat also benefited from ideas recent losses have been overdone, but this support was short-lived as traders anticipate basis levels softening as harvest activity picks up. Wheat needs a dose of fresh export news to encourage buying, especially since Japan and South Korea continue to ban shipments of U.S. western white wheat from the PNW despite reassurance from USDA the GMO issue was an isolated incident.

Technical analysis: July Chicago wheat futures saw trade above resistance at Friday's high and below support at Friday's low and closed near mid-range. Violation of support at the April low $6.64 3/4 would open fresh downside risk. The contract needs to return above the March high of $7.40 1/2 to signal a low has been posted.

Hedgers: 100% sold on 2012-crop in the cash market. No 2013-crop sales advised yet.

Cash-only marketers: 100% sold on 2012-crop. No 2013-crop sales advised yet.




Price action: July cotton futures closed 386 points lower today, while the October and December contracts were 45 to 160 points lower, respectively. The rest of the market ended slightly higher.

Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures faced heavy liquidation pressure today after the expiration of July options last Friday. That liquidation pressure spilled into nearby months, though selling was less pronounced in these contracts, especially through the daytime hours.

Traders are awaiting weekly crop progress/condition data. Concerns with dryness in the Southwest, especially key production areas of the Texas has helped spur recent price strength.

Technical analysis: December cotton futures closed below the March high at 89.20 cents after a single close above that level last Friday. If that contract rolls over now, it would be an asymmetrical double-top on the daily chart.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery. 100% sold on old-crop in the cash market.

Cash-only marketers: 85% sold on old-crop. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.


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