Crops Analysis (VIP) -- October 28, 2013

October 28, 2013 09:47 AM


Price action: Corn futures settled 7 1/2 to 9 1/4 cents lower through the July 2015 contract, which was on or near session lows.

Fundamental analysis: An active harvest pace of the record corn crop weighed on the corn market today. Producers are working hard to get as much corn harvested ahead of forecast rains for this week, which will temporarily slow harvest efforts. Additional pressure came on heavy spillover from the soybean market.

With the record corn crop being harvested, corn futures are struggling to find a bottom. To do so, export demand must signal prices have fallen far enough. USDA reported a daily sale of 103,600 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 2013-14, but weekly export inspections fell short of expectations at 26.5 million bushels.

Funds were active sellers today, selling a net 12,000 contracts (60 million bu.) of corn today. That adds to an already large net short position funds hold in the corn market.

Technical analysis: December corn futures posted a new for-the-move low today by violating support at the Oct. 14 low of $4.32. Daily chart support now lies at $4.25 and is layered to the contract low at $3.98 1/4.

Hedgers: 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.




Price action: Soybeans collapsed 17 1/4 to 28 3/4 cents through the August 2014 contract, with futures closing at their lows for the day. November futures led the decline.

Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures fell on an active harvest pace over the weekend and , technical-related selling. Traders have been expecting positive export news and got it today. But they chose to sell the fact after buying on rumors of export business being contracted during the government shutdown.

USDA reported this morning 83.6 million bu. of soybeans were inspected for export for the week ended Oct. 24, up 23.711 million bu. from the previous week and well above expectations. USDA also announced a sale of 115,000 MT of soybeans to China and 115,000 MT sold to unknown destinations, all for 2013-14 delivery. However, China's Ministry of Commerce has lowered its soybean import forecast for the month by 640,000 MT to 5.21 MMT. But this would still represent a 10.9% increase from September.

Technical analysis: November soybean futures slumped after three days of failing to break the 50-day Moving Average. The drop under the psychological $13.00 level triggered sell stops, driving the contract sharply lower and breaking the two-week uptrend line. That contract has support at the Oct. 14 low at $12.61 3/4 area with $13.00 again seen as resistance.

Hedgers: Get to 100% sold in the cash market on expected 2013-crop production. We'll manage risk on the board the remainder of the marketing year.

Cash-only marketers: Get to 75% sold on expected 2013-crop production.




Price action: Wheat futures faced pressure throughout the day and the market ended just off session lows, with SRW wheat 9 3/4 to 11 1/2 cents lower, while the HRW and HRS markets saw losses of roughly 7 to 8 cents.

Fundamental analysis: Spillover from the corn and soybean markets weighed on wheat early this morning and selling accelerated on news weekly export inspections fell short of expectations and slowed from recent weeks to 16.308 million bushels. News the European Commission upped its wheat harvest forecast by more than 2 MMT from August to 133.5 MMT added light pressure.

In addition, the U.S. Southern Plains are expected to receive beneficial precip this week, further improving soils for a winter wheat crop that is already off to a strong start. USDA is expected to remind traders of this in today's crop progress and condition update.

Technical analysis: December SRW wheat futures are nearing the bottom of the market's multiweek consolidation area at $6.78 1/4, which roughly coincides with the August high. Last week's high of $7.11 1/4 is resistance.

Hedgers: 75% sold on 2013-crop in the cash market. No 2014-crop sales are advised.

Cash-only marketers: 50% sold on 2013-crop. No 2014-crop sales are advised at this time.




Price action: Cotton futures traded on either side of unchanged but ended 14 to 43 points lower on the day.

Fundamental analysis: Most cotton contracts sustained major technical damage last week and the market saw bouts of both followthrough selling and short-covering today amid uncertainty as to additional downside potential. Giving bears an edge is news China's reserve purchases so far this year are down 41% relative to the same period last year. Strength in the U.S. dollar index and spillover from the bean market added to the negative tone.

But countering this is news recent and expected heavy rains in India have raised production and quality concerns with the crop there.

Technical analysis: December cotton futures extended last week's major price plunge today and finished below former support at the October 2012 high of 79.38 cents, turning that level into resistance. Support is now layered every 50 cents lower, starting at 78.50 cents.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.


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