Crops Analysis (VIP) -- October 30, 2013

October 30, 2013 09:39 AM


Price action: Corn futures slumped after a brief round of corrective buying this morning. As has been the case most of October, today's trading range was very narrow. Futures finished down 1 1/2 to 3 cents and at their lows of the day. Funds sold 4,000 contracts (20 million bu.) of corn today.

Fundamental analysis: Corn futures moved higher briefly on a round of overnight export news, which signals prices have fallen far enough to attract export interest. South Korean feedmakers purchased 368,000 MT of U.S. corn for March and April delivery, which followed the purchase of 140,000 MT of U.S. corn by another South Korea firm on Tuesday. Taiwan also bought 60,000 MT of U.S. corn overnight. In addition, the market got positive news on the ethanol front. Ethanol production for the week ended Oct. 25 rose 14,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 911,000 bpd. Ethanol stocks fell 538,000 barrels to 14.96 million barrels.

But traders shrugged off the positive demand news as the U.S. dollar index firmed and traders returned their focus to the record corn crop.

Technical analysis: Support for December corn futures is layered fairly heavily from Tuesday's low at $4.28 1/4 to the contract low at $3.98 1/4, though that support was formed in 2010. Old support at 44.45 3/4 is key near-term resistance.

Hedgers: 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 25% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via forward contract for harvest delivery.




Price action: November soybean futures ended 8 1/2 cents higher, while deferred contracts were mostly 5 to 6 cents higher. Futures ended mid-range for the day.

Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures pulled much of their support from the soyoil market today. Corrective buying in that market triggered short-covering in soybeans. Traders also covered short positions amid firmer basis. With rain-induced harvest delayed expected the remainder of the week, commercials raised bids in an attempt to get their hands on soybeans.

Traders also covered short positions ahead of what's expected to be a quiet delivery period for November soybean futures, which kicks off with first notice day tomorrow. Plus, traders are expecting a very big export sales figure tomorrow morning as USDA will released data for the weeks ended Oct. 10, 17 and 24.

Technical analysis: January soybeans are attempting to bounce from the bottom of the short-term consolidation range. Resistance at the top of this range extends from $13.00 to $13.12 3/4. The Oct. 14 low at $12.61 1/4 is key near-term support. A close below that level would open the door for the contract to move the next leg lower, likely to at least the $12.30 area.

Hedgers: Get to 100% sold in the cash market on expected 2013-crop production. We'll manage risk on the board the remainder of the marketing year.

Cash-only marketers: Get to 75% sold on expected 2013-crop production.




Price action: SRW wheat futures closed 3 to 6 cents lower, HRW was mostly 2 to 4 cents lower and HRS was 4 to 5 cents lower. All three flavors ended low-range.

Fundamental analysis: Wheat futures faced pressure today from continued weakness in the corn market. After weeks of trying to pull corn higher, the wheat market is looking tired and futures are rolling over. A firming U.S. dollar index late in the session also weighed on wheat futures into the close.

News India lowered its wheat export floor by $13 to $260 per MT sparked concerns exports from the country will build. That could offset what some are hoping is a slowdown from recent export activity out of the Black Sea region.

Technical analysis: December SRW wheat futures posted a bearish reversal today and closed below the August high of $6.76 1/2 for the first time since pushing above that level in late September. Followthrough selling tomorrow would point the contract toward support around the contract low at $6.35 1/2.

Hedgers: 75% sold on 2013-crop in the cash market. No 2014-crop sales are advised.

Cash-only marketers: 50% sold on 2013-crop. No 2014-crop sales are advised at this time.




Price action: Cotton futures finished 32 to 50 points lower, again ending in the lower end of today's trading range.

Fundamental analysis: Seasonal pressure continues to weigh on the cotton market even though the harvest pace remains slower than normal. With new-crop supplies coming to market and demand uncertainties, attitudes have turned negative. The truest sign of bearish attitudes is that futures continue to close low-range, which the December contract has now done for nine consecutive sessions.

Traders will get a big batch of weekly export sales data tomorrow morning as USDA will release figures for the weeks ended Oct. 10, 17 and 24. But that may lead to more disappointment as weekly export sales for the week ended Oct. 3 were very light.

Technical analysis: December cotton futures dropped to their lowest level since Dec. 28, 2012, today. Support is now layered from 75.41 cents to the November 2012 low at 74.35 cents. To signal a low is in place the contract must push above the September 2012 high at 81.30 cents.

Hedgers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is hedged in December cotton futures at 83.87 cents. 50% of expected 2013-crop production is also sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: 50% of expected 2013-crop production is sold via cash forward contract for harvest delivery.


Back to news


Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by
Brought to you by Beyer