DAP, MAP & Potash Action

February 25, 2013 09:45 AM
 

DAP, MAP and Potash all fell regionally last week, but as is always the case, along with declines come gains in other parts of the Midwest. Trends in NH3 suggest a seasonal low is in place for a very short time in select locales. Allow me to point out the obvious and say that application season is just a few weeks away -- sooner for some -- and prices are not likely to ease when faced with immediate springtime demand.

Look closely at the three tables below -- DAP, MAP and K -- to see how P&K are priced in your state. Check your local pricing at your preferred retailer and you may find the price is right to fill the last of your spring P&K needs.

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DAP has five states unchanged from last week. Gainers added $14.00 while decliners shed $15.00. The greatest decline was seen in Michigan where DAP fell $9.00 to $697.00; Missouri DAP fell $4.00 and Minnesota and Iowa both fell $1.00.

The largest gain in DAP was a $10.00 jump in Kansas to $634.00. After that, Wisconsin adds $3.00 and Indiana gains $1.00. The five unchanged states mean just about anything can happen, but we are bullish at this time on nutirient and expect any late winter phosphate moves to be to the upside.

DAP 2/25/13
Previous Week
Current Week
Change
Iowa
$657.00
$656.00
-$1.00
Illinois
$630.00
$630.00
unchanged
Indiana
$629.00
$630.00
+$1.00
Ohio
$639.00
$639.00
unchanged
Wisconsin
$617.00
$620.00
+$3.00
Michigan
$706.00
$697.00
-$9.00
Minnesota
$645.00
$644.00
-$1.00
South Dakota
$632.00
$632.00
unchanged
North Dakota
$644.00
$644.00
unchanged
Nebraska
$670.00
$670.00
unchanged
Missouri
$640.00
$636.00
-$4.00
Kansas
$624.00
$634.00
+10.00
Midwest Average
$644.41
$644.33
+$0.08

 

MAP looks a little different from DAP. Over half of the 12 states in the Monitor Index show MAP unchanged from the previous week. A three dollar dive in Indiana is enough to capture the largest decline and along with Nebraska's $2.00 slide comprise the only downward movement in MAP this week. With this many states unchanged, implied volatility is high for the next two weeks. This close to spring, high implied volatility suggests a greater probability for upward moves than downward.

Gainers added $10.00 -- declines totaled $5.00. Seven states remain unchanged. Gains include an $8.00 increase in Minnesota and $1.00 increases in Illinois and Kansas. Declines came from two states -- Indiana falling $3.00 and Nebraska falling $2.00.

Phosphate inventories are making a comeback against the five-year average, but stocks are not yet large enough to insulate retail pricing. Seven states unchanged in a bull market imply room to the upside in the short-term.

MAP 2/25/13
Previous Week
Current Week
Change
Iowa
$660.00
$660.00
unchanged
Illinois
$654.00
$655.00
+$1.00
Indiana
$650.00
$647.00
-$3.00
Ohio
$645.00
$645.00
unchanged
Wisconsin
$622.00
$622.00
unchanged
Michigan
$685.00
$685.00
unchanged
Minnesota
$662.00
$670.00
+$8.00
South Dakota
$640.00
$640.00
unchanged
North Dakota
$650.00
$636.00
unchanged
Nebraska
$660.00
$658.00
-$2.00
Missouri
$659.00
$659.00
unchanged
Kansas
$670.00
$671.00
+$1.00
Midwest Average
$654.75
$654.00
-$0.75

 

Potash fell $0.92 cents across the Midwest in the Monitor's Weekly Index. The table below shows how pricing action for K shook out over the last week. Despite the modest regionwide decline, only one state -- South Dakota -- is unchanged this week, which carries less implied volatility in the short-term than does a table like that for MAP which shows seven of twelve states unchanged.

Gainers add $12.00 while decliners fall $23.00. Nebraska is the sweet spot for K this week falling $6.00 to $621.00. Missouri sheds $5.00 and North Dakota, not far behind, declines by $4.00 to $574.00. Indiana falls $4.00, Ohio and Iowa both fell $2.00, and South Dakota remains unchanged.

The largest increases were in Wisconsin where K added $4.00. Michigan and Minnesota each add $3.00 while Illinois and Kansas each add $1.00. International tenders have North America in good potash supply at present and that should minimize any room K has to the upside.

Potash 2/25/13
Previous Week
Current Week
Change
Iowa
$592.00
$590.00
-$2.00
Illinois
$584.00
$585.00
+$1.00
Indiana
$583.00
$579.00
-$4.00
Ohio
$582.00
$580.00
-$2.00
Wisconsin
$554.00
$558.00
+$4.00
Michigan
$565.00
$568.00
+$3.00
Minnesota
$585.00
$588.00
+$3.00
South Dakota
$581.00
$581.00
unchanged
North Dakota
$578.00
$574.00
-$4.00
Nebraska
$627.00
$621.00
-$6.00
Missouri
$580.00
$575.00
-$5.00
Kansas
$610.00
$611.00
+$1.00
Midwest Average
$585.08
$584.16
-$0.92

 


 

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